Pramode Mallik
Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump, who will be better for India as the next US President? Though foreign policy maintains continuity and India- US bilateral relationship is not likely to undergo a major change irrespective of who gets elected in the US Presidential Election 2024.
Will US Increase Protectionism?
However, there may be minor changes and adjustments in the India- US relations depending on which way the result of the election goes. As Donald Trump has announced his economic and business policies on the twin slogans of ‘America First ‘and ‘Make America Great Again’, it is clear that he will encourage protectionism if elected US President.
Increased US Tariffs For Indian Imports?
The US administration under Donald Trump is most likely to adopt a tough approach toward India as he has indicated many times by accusing India of indulging in unfair trade practices and not opening its market and service sector to the US. Trump is most likely to slap additional tariffs on Indian imports, particularly on steel, aluminium, electrical equipment, and motor parts. It may hit Indian exports to the US.
However, as Washington is likely to adopt a more aggressive and negative approach to China and may put more restrictions on the Asian giant, it may come as an opportunity for Indian companies, who increase their exports to the US.
Will RBI Ease Interest Rates?
Analysts believe if Trump is elected US President the Federal Reserve may be encouraged to adopt a more accommodative approach and this may push the Reserve Bank of India to ease interest rates, helping the banking system. The PSUs and Non- Banking Finance Companies may be benefitted.
H1-B Visa For Indians
Donald Trump’s aggressive approach to H1-B Visas may complicate the issue for IT sector firms, limiting the number of Indian professionals.
It may increase the input cost of US-based companies as well as India-based IT and ITES firms. But it is not likely to disrupt the operations.
Pharmaceutical Firms
Democrat US President Joe Biden announced Medicare to negotiate the drug prices so that these could be kept under control. It is scheduled to be implemented in 2026. Kamala Harris is most likely to continue with this scheme, but it is not likely to hit Indian pharmaceutical firms.
Geo-strategic Cooperation
The US is most likely to increase defense and strategic cooperation with India irrespective of the recent sanctions imposed on 19 Indian companies and two individuals. After the strategic treaty was signed in 2024 for cooperation on the transfer of technology between the two countries, New Delhi is likely to get new technology, particularly in the field of defense.
Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have similar policies on containing China. They have similar attitudes on the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific region and are more likely to sharpen anti-China rhetoric through Quad. The next US President is most likely to continue good ties with New Delhi in a bid to put pressure on Beijing.
