By Sanjoy Chatterjee

Any keen watcher of global affairs would surely agree that the South China Sea (SCS) seems likely to be the next global flashpoint. Here’s why…

Encompassing strategic sea lines of communication that host nearly one third of the global maritime trade, and endowed with significant known oil and natural gas reserves, the SCS has definitely become a vital geostrategic arena. With the Laws of the Sea, or UNCLOS, coming into force in 1982, a race started between states across the globe to interpret these laws in a manner that best served their interests. In some countries those interpretations were adopted which would legitimise ‘revised’ maritime entitlements. This also resulted in conflicting claims and counter-claims among the coastal states of SCS over the ownership and associated maritime entitlements of islands, reefs, banks, etc. And while these disputes are also yet to be resolved, over the last decade or so, emboldened by its economic and military rise, China is further exploiting other countries in the region by pursuing the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) interests across the region, using any means necessary even if they are illegitimate.

In spite of a clear verdict by Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in 2016, China continues to stake claim to the entire SCS as national waters citing a dubious ‘Nine Dash’ line. It is busy militarily fortifying the area at the cost of the delicate marine ecosystem, while is also presenting a challenge for the global economic security. Dredging being undertaken for construction of artificial islands over rocks has destroyed corals and reef flats, with reports suggesting that nearly 27% of shallow reef area of the seven reefs in the SCS is already lost forever.

In addition, the Chinese fishing and militia fleet, acting under the command of the CCP continue to swarm disputed waters to dissuade other vessels from even venturing into the area. As they continue to dump excessive sewage and waste water directly into the sea, fleshy algae have thrived and grown to an extent that it is now a grave threat to the coral reefs themselves. With over 200 such vessels reportedly being anchored off Spratly Islands for over five years, the losses are already likely to be irretrievable. To add to these woes, rampant overfishing by Chinese illegal fishing fleets, using techniques like cyanide and dynamite fishing, and operating without any ‘breeding period’ has not only affected the delicate ecosystem but is directly threatening the livelihood of fishermen of other coastal states.

However, to the extent possible, such actions remain below the level which would trigger international response. Adhering partially to the ‘24 character dictum’ of “observe calmly; secure our position, cope with affairs calmly”, established by Deng Xiaoping in 1990, China’s leadership seeks a solution on their terms. In their view, political, military and economic ‘might’ will sooner or later legitimise these efforts and claims. For example, in January 2021, the CCP passed a new Maritime Police Law giving overwhelming powers to the Coast Guard to use weapons against foreign ships (including warships/ auxiliaries) involved in illegal activities in ‘own’ waters. Three months later, an amended Maritime Traffic Safety Law (April 2021) was enacted, which empowered the Maritime Safety Agency to order foreign vessels to leave ‘territorial waters’ if not qualifying for innocent passage or threatening security.

Recently, in September 2021, CCP has mandated ships carrying certain types of cargo to provide detailed information during transit in China’s ‘territorial’ waters. While it may be argued that such demands by coastal states have precedence, it is the rapidity as well as the Chinese interpretation of ‘territorial waters’ that is alarming. There has been a deliberate attempt to induce an ambiguity in the law which can be exploited by the Coast Guard and militia to harass legal economic activity of other countries. And of course, if the CCP succeeds in enforcing these laws, by any means necessary, it would qualify in due course of time as an ‘established internationally recognised practice’ that would only lend credence to these claims.

What is more disconcerting is the attitude of the other claimants in response to these blatantly provocative manoeuvres of the China. Worried of inviting the wrath of this ‘deep pocketed big brother’ who sold a dream of exponential economic growth, most countries in the region want to avoid any direct confrontation. This may be attributable to their inability to match the Chinese might as well as a lack of political will. These nations are seemingly left with only three options, all with a Chinese flavour – 1) seek a mutually acceptable solution through any recognised dispute resolution mechanism (which China is not going to agree and even if it agrees, it would be on Beijing’s terms), 2) seek support from nations who believe in an ‘order and rule based’ system (which China is not going to tolerate and would harass them further), or 3) subtly give up of their claims in favour of the dragon (the dragon gets what it wants without a fight).

Philippines makes an interesting study in this regard. In spite of July 2016 verdict by PCA being in Philippines’ favour, Manila has been courted by the CCP. Since then, it has displayed only a muted response to Chinese misadventures in disputed waters. Chinese fishing boats continue to swarm the Whitsun Reef, well within Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and disregard warnings by Philippines’ Coast Guard ships. In early 2021, the Chinese also warned a Philippines military aircraft flying over the Whitsun reef not to approach the ‘Chinese reef’.  The response of present Philippine Government was just this – a directive from President Duterte to government officials not to respond to queries on this incident! Such response has only encouraged China to intensify aggressive behaviour across the region.

However bleak the situation may seem, it is definitely not too late to take effective counter action. While it may be a difficult proposition to undo what China has already done in terms of militarisation of the islands in SCS, nations in the region, as well as those with a stake in the region’s stability and security, need to come together to raise the cost of any further misadventure by the CCP. Non-compliance to international regulations and disregard of genuine interests of other nations must be responded to in coordination. The increased effort to expose Chinese illegal activities must be sustained and expanded to lay bare the CCP’s hypocrisy and lack of credibility. A coordinated effort by ASEAN could definitely force Beijing to negotiate a favourable ‘Code of Conduct’ in SCS, thereby turning Beijing’s delay tactics against them.

If the ASEAN does embark on such a ‘team effort’ it would undoubtedly be supported by Australia, Japan, India, France and the US, in addition to most European and Asian countries. Standing up together to the CCP bully is an imperative, and the sooner a coordinated response is implemented, the better are the chances to avert a flare up in the SCS which could have global consequences.