The performance of silver could either match or outperform gold in the medium to long term, as silver prices is expected to reach Rs 1,25,000 per kilogram on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and USD 40 per ounce on the COMEX within the next 12 to 15 months, the Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL) said.
Silver has shown impressive growth in 2024, recording gains of over 40 per cent year-to-date and surpassing the Rs 100,000 mark domestically, driven by safe-haven demand and robust industrial usage. The financial services firm further anticipated that the gold prices will reach Rs 81,000 per 10 grams in the medium term and Rs 86,000 in the long term.
On the COMEX, gold is expected to hit USD 2,830 in the medium term and USD 3,000 in the long term, it added. Gold has consistently been one of the best-performing assets in recent years – barring 2021, as the yellow metal has closed in the green on the domestic front since 2016.
This year, gold prices have surged to record highs on both the COMEX and domestic markets, yielding over 30 per cent growth year-to-date. Manav Modi, Analyst, Commodity Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said, “2024 has experienced a significant price rally fuelled by market uncertainties, expectations of rate cuts, rising demand, and a depreciating rupee.
The months following the U.S. presidential election will be critical in shaping gold’s near-term trajectory. Hereon, the two key factors underpinning this year’s rally in precious metals are expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical ensions, particularly in the Middle East. Overall, the sentiment for this Diwali is projected to be positive, raising optimism for bullion”.
According to the firm, historically, the emand for gold tends to surge during the festive season and this year Diwali coincides with U.S. presidential election and the ultimate Federal Reserve policy meeting of 2024 which will enhance market sentiment.
However, it noted that the recent concerns over rising prices could dampen overall demand and domestic demand may experience a slight dip, prices could still find support amid these major events. According to MOFSL analysis of leap years and historical patterns of Gold, since 2011, there have only been two instances (2015 and 2016) where the 30 days leading up to Diwali recorded negative returns.
Aside from 2022, pre-Diwali gains have consistently outpaced post-Diwali gains. “We continue to believe that gold has further upside potential wherein any dips could present buying opportunities. According to our recent quarterly report, a correction of 5-7 per cent is plausible and could serve as an accumulation zone”, added Manav Modi.
