Pakistan’s fragile governance structure, combined with its non-signatory status to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), raises serious doubts about its reliability as a nuclear steward, increasing the risk of leakage and undermining international non-proliferation safeguards, particularly in relation to countries such as Iran, a report said on Tuesday.
It added that the regional role of Pakistan has been destabilising, as its past nuclear exports triggered a chain of proliferation that armed rogue actors and led to frameworks like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to curb Iran’s nuclear deal – prompting Israeli security concerns and Gulf arms races.
“Pakistan’s clandestine nuclear transfers to Iran in the late 1980s and 1990s laid the technological foundation for Tehran’s enrichment programme, a linkage that persists amid Iran’s 2025 uranium stockpiles exceeding JCPOA limits by 48 times. A Q Khan’s network supplied centrifuge designs, components, and expertise, shortening Iran’s path to threshold status while exposing Pakistan’s willingness to proliferate for ideological and economic gain,” a report in the UK-based newspaper ‘Asian Lite’ detailed.
“Today, as Iran installs advanced IR-6 centrifuges at fortified sites like Fordow and suspends IAEA access post-Israeli strikes, Pakistan’s public backing of Tehran’s “peaceful” nuclear rights signals ongoing strategic alignment with destabilising potential,” it stressed.
According to the report, Pakistan’s internal instability makes it the weakest link in the global non-proliferation architecture, where recurring political upheavals, frequent coups, judicial manipulations like the 27th Constitutional Amendment, and economic weaknesses create incentives for elites to leverage nuclear assets for survival and economic benefit.
“Jihadist incursions into military facilities, documented in US assessments, raise theft risks for fissile material, while command-and-control vulnerabilities amid civil strife undermine secure stewardship. This brittle governance, coupled with non-NPT status, renders Pakistan unreliable as a nuclear custodian, prone to leakage under pressure and dismissive of international safeguards, perpetuating proliferation risks to states like Iran,” it mentioned.
The report noted that Pakistan’s ambiguity weakens global NPT enforcement as a non-signatory proliferator that is now supporting Iran’s violations, thereby legitimising the outsourcing of nuclear expertise by threshold states, according to proliferation experts.
“IAEA access denials echo post-Khan opacity, with Iran’s Arak reactor delays and undeclared sites mirroring Pakistan’s past deceptions. Economically, trade ambitions mask strategic calculus. Iran needs markets evading sanctions; Pakistan seeks leverage via anti-Western solidarity. Yet this convergence heightens escalation risks. Iran’s Fordow fortifications and 60 per cent focus signal a hedge against regime threats, amplified if Pakistani tacit aid resumes. Israel’s hints at broader nuclear strikes, rebuffed by Pakistan’s OIC push, underscore how Khan’s legacy chains Islamabad to Tehran’s defiance,” it stated.
