Will Indonesian President Probowo Subianto’s visit to India begin a new phase of bonhomie between the two Asian countries? Will New Delhi be able to use Indonesia in its attempt to improve ties with the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation? Can India neutralise Pakistan in the politics of Islamic Ummah with the help of Indonesia?

India and Indonesia signed on Saturday a number of bilateral agreements to consolidate their relations. They will forge economic and defense ties for mutual benefit.

India invited Probowo Subianto as its chief guest on its Republic Day 2025. It was not the first time that an Indonesian President graced the occassion. Then Indonesian President Sukarno was invited as the chief guest on the first Republic Day celebration in India in 1952.

Joko Widodo was the chief guest on Republic Day in 2017.

India-Indonesia Relations Suffer

However, the Indo-Indonesia ties worsened in the aftermath of the countrywide protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act and the Natinal Register of Citizens.

The bilateral ties hit rock bottom after Article 370 was amended and the special status given to Jammu and Kashmir was abolished.

As the the Joko Widodo administration criticised India on these issues, New Delhi hit back and increased tariffs on palm oil, the mainstay of the Indonesian economy. It had its consequences on Indian edible oil market as the prices of all types of edible oil soared.

Later, the two sides soon took steps to boost the bilateral relationship and the ties improved considerably. The invitation sent to Probowo Subianto is seen as an attempt to further improve the ties.

Indonesia is important for India as it is a member of the Association of South East Asian Nations and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation. India is not a member of either of these blocs.

Indonesia-India Bilateral Trade

As the two nations signed several treaties in the presence of Subianto and India Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday, all eyes are set on the bilateral trade.

According to government data, Indonesia is India’s second-largest trading partner in the ASEAN region with bilateral trade of US$ 29.4 billion in 2023-24.

While Jakarta imports vegetable oils, cocoa products, spices, coffee, oil meals, etc from India, it exports crude palm oil, rubber, pulp and paper, and hydrocarbon products.

India exported goods worth $9.73 billion to Indonesia, while it imported goods worth $25.3 billion to India in 2022. India-Indonesia bilateral trade reached $29.5 billion in FY 2023-24.

According to government data, New Delhi exported goods worth US$5.99 billion to Indonesia in FY2024, dominated by mineral fuels and vehicles.

Indonesia invested US$653.83 million in India in sectors like automotive, pharmaceuticals, and banking.

Geostrategic Relations

Besides the economic relations, India and Indonesia are important for each other for geostrategic reasons as well.

Despite Indonesia and China having good bilateral relations, they have friction points due the South China Sea. As China claims its sovereignty over almost entire area of the disputed sea, it has strained relations with Indonesia.

Beijing claims its control upto the nine-dash-line that intervenes Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone near the Natuna island.

The relations between the two countries became so intense that Jakarta destroyed 3 Chinese vessels between 2014 and 2019.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo visited Natuna islands on a warship on On June 23, 2016, to send a “clear message” to China.

South China Sea, Quad, India

Chinese coast guard vessels escorted its fishing boats and conducted fishing off the coast of northern islands of Natuna in January 2020.

Beijing asked Indonesia to stop its oil exploration activities in the waters of the Natuna islands and sent coast guard vessels to the area in 2021.

As India has emerged as an important player of the Quadrilateral Strategic dialogue or Quad and a force that can challenge China in the South China Sea, its importance has increased many folds.

Analysts believe, Indonesia wants to improve ties with India to counter Chinese influence in the disputed sea.

Indonesia To Help India In Islamic Ummah?

Similarly, Jakarta is important for India for safeguarding its interests in the Muslim Ummah in a subtle way.

As Turkey is trying to sideline Saudi Arabia and dominate 57-member Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, India has set its eyes on Indonesia.

The country with the biggest Muslim population in the world has its own weightage in the Muslim Ummah. India, the country with the second biggest Muslim population is not a member of the bloc.

Turkey has tilted towards Pakistan and Riyadh is under its pressure within the OIC. Indonesia can help India in safeguardingg its interests in the bloc in particular and the the Islamic Ummah in general.

Similarly being an important member of the defense bloc ASEAN, Jakarta can help India safeguard its interests in the East Asia.

Earlier, Subianto planned to go to Pakistan from India. Pakistan announced that the Indonesian President would reach Islamabad on January 26.

However, the MEA mandarins were upset over the planned visit and convinced their Indonesian counterparts hat the visit would embarrass India. Later, Subainto announced on social media platform X that he will return to Jakarta after attending tge Republic Day celebrations in New Delhi.

The controversy underlined Indonesian interests in Pakistan and also indicated how vulnerable Indian diplomacy has become. It also indicates that New Delhi has to be cautious while ties with the ASEAN nation.