India’s GDP growth for the January–March quarter of 2025 is expected to be 6.9%, according to rating agency ICRA. The official data is scheduled to be released on May 30 by the National Statistics Office. ICRA has projected the year-on-year expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9% in Q4 2024-25 from 6.2% in Q3 2024-25, while significantly undershooting the National Statistical Office’s (NSO) implicit estimate of 7.6% for the quarter.

During the April-June, July-September, October-December 2024 quarters, the country’s economy, in real terms, observed a growth rate of 6.7%, 5.6%, and 6.2%, respectively. On May 30, the provisional estimates of annual GDP for the entire 2024-25 fiscal will also be released.

As per the second advance estimates of NSO, the country’s economy is projected to grow at 6.5% in 2024-25. The Reserve Bank of India had also projected 6.5% GDP growth for the fiscal 2024-25.

What Else?

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head-Research and Outreach, ICRA, “Both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty.”

Unless there are material revisions in the data for Q1-Q3 2024-25, ICRA projects a sharp step down in the full-year GDP expansion to 6.3% in 2024-25 from 9.2% in 2023-24. India’s GDP grew by an impressive 9.2% during the financial year 2023-24, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy grew by 7.2% in 2022-23 and 8.7% in 2021-22, according to official data.

The Indian economy is estimated to achieve a growth of 6.5 per cent in FY25 despite considerable external headwinds, the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), Ministry of Finance said in a report in March. The Monthly Economic Review added that the performance of the economy in the past quarters was driven by strong agricultural and service sector performance on the supply side and a steady increase in consumption and core merchandise and services exports on the demand side.