A research firm founder has sparked widespread debate online after predicting that India will run out of plumbers, electricians, carpenters, drivers, nurses and caregivers in five years due to their migration to high income countries. Ritesh Jain, founder of Pinetree, a Canada-based macro trends research firm, has asserted that in the long run India will be left with white collar degree holders who are unemployed in the country and unrequired in high income countries.

In a LinkedIn post, Jain writes, “World is short blue collar and long white collar workers.” He said, “Rich countries are in demographic collapse except US,” referring to a decline in population which is driven by sustained low birth rates combined with an aging population that results in shrinking internal workforce and increased dependence on outside labor. “High income countries are facing demographics collapse and Indian blue collar is the answer,” he wrote.

Jain said, “West love affairs with unchecked immigration is over as some immigrants don’t assimilate and wants to change the culture itself.” He says this gives the next big macro theme. “I believe within 5 years India will be short of plumbers, electricians, carpenters, drivers, nurses and care givers etc as they will migrate to high income countries.”

Jain predicted that in the future India will see a major crisis as there will be a large number of graduates with white-collar degrees but few high-skill office or professional roles for them. Jain said that the demand for white collar jobs naturally declines when the need for blue-collar jobs increases. “But don’t worry, we will be left with kids who have white collar degrees with no jobs in India and no requirements in high income countries,” he wrote.

Jain also shared an advertisement which read that there are requirements of home based caregivers in Israel that will pay up to approximately Rs 2 lakhs per month. The advertisement further read that there is a high demand for Indian professional caregivers in Israel. 

Netizens React
The post drew widespread discussion on social media.

One user said, “Going by what you re saying, and I agree with it India is heading for a collapse of the so-called intellectual class, especially those who are not savvy enough to accumulate capital either through investing or entrepreneurship. which again confirms my view that capital and entrepreneurship are going to be more precious than white collar labour.”

Another user said, “India will be short of blue collar workers not because of migration, it would be because of freebies in India and social stigma where everyone wants their children to become white collar workers.”

One user said, “Ritesh Jain India will be short of blue collar workers not because of migration, it would be because of freebies in India and social stigma where everyone wants their children to become white collar workers.”

A user said, “I don’t see any doomsday scenario here  …… finding employment for 10 crore Indians aged 20-30 needs many solutions. So if they become /plumbers, electricians, carpenters, drivers, nurses and care givers/ and a few million go to these countries, its good.”