A prominent US think tank has warned that renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan is likely in 2026, citing heightened terrorist activity as a major trigger for potential military escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
In a report published on December 18, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a prominent US think tank, states in its Preventive Priorities Survey titled ‘Conflicts to Watch in 2026’: “Renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity.”
Pahalgam Terror Attack
This report comes after India and Pakistan were briefly engaged in a conflict in May, after Pakistan-sponsored terrorists killed 26 innocent civilians in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam area on April 22.
Operation Sindoor: India’s Military Response
India retaliated by launching Operation Sindoor under which Indian Armed forces launched precision strikes on 9 terror launch pads in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, decimating them and killing over 100 JeM and LeT dreaded terrorists.
Following India’s precision strikes, Pakistan attempted to retaliate by launching several drone attacks across the border. However, these drones were successfully intercepted and neutralized by India’s Air Defence systems, preventing any significant damage or casualties on Indian territory.
After facing significant losses during the May 7-10 confrontation, Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) reached out to his Indian counterpart via a telephonic conversation, proposing a ceasefire. India agreed to the ceasefire request, effectively ending the brief military engagement.
Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions Also Highlighted in CFR Report
The CFR report also identified another potential conflict zone in South Asia, warning about possible renewed armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The think tank cited resurgent cross-border militant attacks as a key factor that could trigger military confrontation between the two nations.
“Renewed armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, triggered by resurgent cross-border militant attacks,” a report by a US think tank said.
In October 2025, tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan escalated when Taliban forces crossed the Durand Line to target TTP militants in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, leading to armed clashes between the two countries. Pakistan retaliated with airstrikes, killing dozens and displacing thousands. A fragile ceasefire was brokered by the United Nations, but cross-border terrorist attacks continue.
