With the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the ten-year war waged between the US-backed mujahideen and the Soviet Union fought between 1979 and 1989 seems a distant memory, especially given Moscow’s current role as an influential player in international affairs relating to the conflict-ridden nation.
Plagued by fears that the US was attempting to increase its strategic influence in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 only to be met with a fiery resistance movement. As per some reports, the war cost the Soviet Union some 15,000 troops with civilian casualty estimates varying hugely from roughly 500,000 to 2 million.
Some may find it quite remarkable then, that, 30 years on, Dmitry Zhirnov, Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan mused earlier this week that ‘the situation in Kabul is better now (under Taliban) than it was under Ashraf Ghani.”
The disintegration of the Soviet Union signalled a significant shift in Russia’s policy objectives in Central Asia. Analysts have noted that the risk assessments relating to the Taliban were critical in informing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to permit the US to build military bases in Afghanistan’s neighbouring nations as the latter prepared for intervention.
Moscow’s cooperation with the US went even further when it assisted in developing the Northern Distribution Network (in 2009) to help deliver supplies to the US and International Security Assistance Force personnel.
But despite the Taliban sitting on Russia’s list of designated terrorist outfits since 2003, Moscow’s view of the hardline Islamist outfit, since the early 2000s, has transformed from that of a terrorist threat to an important internal actor that needed to be engaged to ensure regional stability. Russia came to realise that the greatest probability to build a stable peace in Afghanistan emerged from establishing a channel of communication with the Taliban.
It was in December 2016 that Russia, Pakistan and China, for the first time, invited the Taliban to negotiate with the Afghan government. Further delegations of the Taliban have since travelled to Moscow extensively for talks and consultations. In February 2019, representatives from several major movements including the former Afghan Northern Alliance, mujahideen outfits and the Taliban travelled to Moscow in the first incarnation of the informal inter-Afghan dialogue – a parallel dialogue to the US-led initiatives.
“We have maintained contacts with the Taliban for the last seven years, discussing many issues, “ said Kremlin envoy on Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov earlier this week.
“We saw them as a force that will play a leading role in Afghanistan in the future even if it doesn’t take all power. All those factors, along with guarantees given to us by the Taliban’s top leaders, give us reason for a calm view of the latest developments, although we remain vigilant,” he added.
Russia’s move to keep its embassy in Kabul open while those of several other nations were hastily evacuated was a clear indication that it intends to push on with a pragmatic foreign policy approach to Afghanistan. However, its decision to hold a series of joint war games with its Central Asian allies in the last few weeks also suggests that it does not intend to make any sweeping bilateral changes.
Moscow’s recognition of the new regime taking shape in Kabul, said Kabulov, will be contingent on “whether they will govern the country in a responsible way in the near future, and proceeding from that, the Russian leadership will make the necessary conclusions.”
