At the inaugural Aravali Summit hosted by Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies, External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar underscored how fluctuations in tariff regimes are upending conventional trade calculus worldwide.
“Trade calculations are being overturned by tariff volatility,” he asserted, in a pointed reference to recent U.S. tariff policies. He elaborated on how the world is witnessing a dramatic concentration of manufacturing and said, “A third of global manufacturing has moved to a single geography, with attendant consequences for supply chains.”
Against a backdrop of growing anti-globalisation sentiment, Jaishankar cautioned that changes in tariffs are disrupting established economic models. He went on to survey the evolving global order, noting seismic transformations across multiple domains. He said, “The global energy scenario has changed profoundly with the US becoming a major fossil fuel exporter and China a key renewable one. There are competing models on the harnessing of data and the evolution of Artificial Intelligence, which jostle with each other. Sanctions, asset seizures, and cryptocurrencies are rewriting the rules of finance.”
“Competition for rare earths and critical minerals has become visceral, even as technology controls have further tightened,” he said, adding that weaponry is becoming more stand‑off, more potent, and in consequence, more risk‑prone.
As per the PTI report, Jaishankar also voiced concern over the gradual erosion of sovereignty, facilitated by deep technological penetration and manipulation. He warned that global norms are being challenged and, occasionally, discarded: “Cost is no longer the defining criterion for economic transactions; ownership and security are equally so.”
He described rising “end‑to‑end” risks that begin with manufacturing concentration, extend through fragile supply chains, and culminate in dependence on key markets. “A belief in balance of power is being replaced with actions based on margins of power,” he observed. He added, “Cumulatively, the world is witnessing more competition and fewer compacts. The needle has shifted towards an intersection of interests and away from the promise of cooperation.”
“Everything is being weaponised, with less inhibition to use available tools,” he said. “Now all nations face these predicaments.”
For India, Jaishankar said the task is to adapt strategically to this volatile environment. “We have to safeguard our interests and yet, continuously advance up the global hierarchy. We have to de‑risk our exposures and engagements and yet, take risks when necessary.”
Addressing a student question on whether India’s foreign policy is “agnostic or independent,” Jaishankar responded, “To some extent, being agnostic and being independent. Even in the past, if you refer to the Indo‑Soviet relationship, what we did was in our national interest. … That side dictated that whatever we have to do in our national interest is best.”
He added pointedly, “Even today, we are sometimes pressed by countries citing some great principle of international law. I ask them, Where were you when that principle applied to me? … In the final analysis, national interest comes over everything else.”
