The daily COVID cases in India are likely to cross the second wave peak of over 4 lakh single-day infections by the end of January, IIT-Kanpur scientist Manindra Agrawal said .
He, however, said that the number of cases will see a sharp drop rapidly and the peak is expected to begin receding by March-end.
“As per preliminary data, cases (nationally) will peak by the end of this month and are likely to cross second wave numbers. But the decline of cases will be equally sharp. By March, it (peak) will be almost over,” Agrawal said.
Agrawal, who is part of the three-member team of experts that predicts any surge in infections in the country, said that Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata are likely to see a big jump in the number of cases in the next few days.
“But this wave will be almost over by the end of this month in these cities,” the expert said, ANI reported.
He had earlier in a tweet said that the peak of the ongoing third wave of COVID-19 in India could arrive in January end or February beginning and the country is likely to see four to eight lakh cases in a day — almost twice the peak of the second wave.
The expert had also suggested that Mumbai is expected to log 30,000 to 60,000 COVID-19 cases by mid-January without a parallel rise in hospitalisations.
“Our guess for peak value of Mumbai is between 30-60K cases/day (7-day average). This appears large, but hospitalisations are happening for only ~3.5% reported cases and so bed requirement will peak at ~10K, which should be manageable,” he said.
In Delhi, 35,000 to 70,000 coronavirus cases are likely to be recorded by the middle of this month, the IIT-Kanpur scientist predicted.
“Delhi is still not stabilized, but is improving. Our guess for peak value for Delhi is between 35-70K cases/day (7-day average) and bed requirement to peak at less than 12K. Peak around 15th Jan for Delhi also,” he added.
