At a time when the country is bracing for a threatening new wave of the coronavirus pandemic, Professor Gyaneshwer Chaubey, senior geneticist in the Department of Zoology at Banaras Hindu University (BHU) has said that there is no possibility of the third wave hitting in the next three months.
His claims contradict several studies and statements by scientists across India about the timing of the potential third wave of the outbreak.
“We now have vaccines. We are seeing that positivity is increasing by 3-8% but also decreasing by 10-12%. As per our calculation, no possibility of third wave hitting in the next 3 months as 70-75% people still have antibodies that will continue for next three months,” Chaubey said.
He also said that the third wave will be less severe and deadly, especially for the vaccinated group of people, those who have recovered from the infection and also children.
“If we are able to vaccinate 90-95% people by November, then I don’t think it’ll have much of an impact on people even if the third wave comes. We will analyse the data again in November. Then we will say what will be the situation in the subsequent three months,” the scientist said.
Chaubey stated that people who have been inoculated and recovered from Covid-19 come under the ‘protected group’, adding that if at all the third wave hits, it will arrive after at least three months.
“As the levels of antibodies drop every three months, the chances of the third wave are likely. In this sense, if the level of antibodies falls in the next three months, then a third wave can come. But the ongoing vaccination campaign will help in the fight against the virus. If our immunity is more than 70 per cent, the effect of Covid in that group will be less, and gradually, its frequency will start decreasing… We are doing regular surveillance. Last time too we saw that the second wave came after seropositivity reached below 10%. So, this time too we are doing surveillance every month, and antibodies of particular people are being checked,” he said.
The professor, however, stated that while the SARS-CoV-2 virus cannot be stopped, the mortality rate surely can be reduced.
“From time to time, coronavirus will raise its head but it will eventually decrease. Once the levels of antibodies decrease, the chances of catching Covid will increase. Even so, for those in the protected group, the death rate is very low. In such a situation, even if there are one to two deaths reported out of two to four lakh people, that would still count as a big deal. Even if our entire population gets infected with coronavirus and we keep the mortality rate below 0.1 or even 1 per cent, then we will win this war,” he said, according to news agency IANS.
