Five terms of Prime Ministership in a country would generally be a yardstick of the longevity, popularity and relevance of a leader. 2 years of iron-hold on power despite inconclusive electoral results, establishing coalition with rivals (Benny Gantz) for the top job would establish the grip the leader has on power.

If that leader has served 12 years at a stretch, led the government for a full 15 years in the last 28, fought off corruption charges, oversaw a rapid vaccination programme amid political crisis, continously opposed the establishment of Palestinian state and efforts the ease nuclear sanctions on Iran, while also enjoying popular support of loyal party workers, that indicates a leader with mass support base. Enter Netanyahu.

• So What Happened?

The demotion of the 71-year old Benjamin Netanyahu from Prime Minister’s job in Israel marks a significant moment in the country’s history. It required an unlike alliance between parties cutting across ideological differences to pose an alternative to Netanyahu for the first time in 12 years. Israel’s coalition contradictions look a lot similar to the populist coalition experiment in Italy, but a closer look would reveal that Israel’s ongoing coalition experiment is peculiar and has no parallels hitherto else.

Take the case of Yesh Atid (17 seats), Blue & White of Benny Gantz (8 seats), Yisrael Beitenu (7 seats), Labour (7), Yamina (6), New Hope (6), Meretz (6), Raam (4); this alliance is not just a diverse ideological coagulation, but also a coalition riddled with differences on almost every issue. The presence of Raam, independent Arab party and non-Arab Israeli parties in the same ruling structure is the potential source of constant friction. Netanyahu, for his part, has vowed to take down the government at the right time.

‘If it’s our destiny to sit in the opposition, we will do so with our heads high until we take down this bad government and return to lead the country our way’, remarked Bibi as he begins his next chapter in his long political career as Leader of Opposition and Chairman of Likud Party, but also as the opposition leader who could yet have another say on the government in the coming months, thanks to the razor-thin majority in favour of the 8-party ruling coalition.

• What Changes With Netanyahu’s Ouster From Power

Nothing and everything. Nothing because the Israeli Military has already deployed the iron dome air defense systems as it prepares to tackle Hamas’ response to the right-wing march planned on Tuesday. The march was originally scheduled to mark Jerusalem Day on May, but it could not go through due to security concerns due to tensions between Israel and Gaza.

The reaction from Palestine is also on predictable lines. Palestine’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh hailed the defeat of Netanyahu as the ‘end of a dark chapter in the history of conflict’, but categorically stated that the new government was no less dangerous that the one it replaced.

Iran, Israel’s regional and ideological rival – was very measured too, in its response to the changing political situation in Israel. While expressing relief that ‘Iran’s enemies’ were gone from power in Israel, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson also said that Israel’s policies were unlikely to change with this regime change.

Initial response from the new Prime Minister Naftali Bennett served to highlight that while there could be plenty of differences in functioning of new administration, ideological and policy shift are unlikely to fructify. Bennett, aged 49, worked as a Chief of Staff to Netanyahu in the past. Bennett hinted at healing the difference in Israeli society as a top priority and held very similar positions to his predecessor on Palestine and Iran.

• But for the moment, the 2-year long political crisis is over. Or is it?

3 right wing parties, 2 centrist parties, two left wing parties and 1 Arab conservative party have formed a coalition. This promises to be a very volatile ride in Israeli politics with the possibility of political chaos due to multiple stakeholders with vastly different positions of politics, economy and policy.

Just how the new PM navigates the political relationship and power dynamics with secular centrist and former TV anchor Yair Lapid would be a crucial aspect to watch. Yair Lapid has taken oath as Foreign Minister in the Bennett government and would take over from Bennett after 2 years.

• What Next For Netanyahu?

While politically Netanyahu remained powerful, the case of ‘two cases’ could yet return to haunt his future prospects in Israeli politics – Case 1000 & Case 2000. The two cases hint at Netanyahu receiving favours from business leaders for various reasons, including to weaken his domestic political rivals. He was formally indicted on November 2019 and this defeat meant that Netanyahu did not have immunity from legal action.

Domestic political challenges for the outgoing PM, one who has defined Israel’s foreign policy over the last decade and more, legal woes for Bibi and fractious alliance of ideological contradictions – these are the variables that Israel finds itself grappling with as it embarks on the new era.