The early numbers from Bihar’s counting centres are painting a bleak picture for the Congress party, which appears to be heading toward one of its worst electoral performances in the state in recent memory.
Trends released on Friday morning show the party ahead in only five constituencies, a slide from the 19 seats it secured in the 2020 assembly polls. This sharp decline is unfolding even as ally Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) puts up a far stronger performance and emerges as the only stable pillar of the Mahagathbandhan in this election cycle.
If the leads sustain through the day, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on course to surpass the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) for the second consecutive time, a development that could revive demands within the BJP for projecting its own chief ministerial face in future contests. But for now, the spotlight is fixed on the Congress collapse sweeping across the state.
The party’s traditional strongholds in Seemanchal, Mithila and parts of Magadh are slipping through its fingers. Several candidates find themselves trailing in seats that were considered comfortably within reach just five years ago.
Contesting 61 seats this time, the Congress is ahead in only five constituencies, a strikingly low conversion rate of nearly 10 percent, which is far below its already modest 2020 performance.
Political veterans in Patna point out that the Congress once enjoyed a central role in shaping Bihar’s political story. Its last significant moment of leadership was when Jagannath Mishra served as chief minister before the 1990 churn that altered the state’s political landscape. The decades that followed saw organisational decay, leadership uncertainty and a steady erosion of its cadre base, shrinking the party to a distant presence in multi-cornered contests where it now often finishes third or fourth.
Rahul Gandhi’s aggressive campaign lines, including allegations of “vote chori” aimed at the Centre and the Election Commission, did not find traction on the ground. Despite the party’s push around the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) drive and the Voter Adhikar Yatra, the electorate appears to have remained unmoved.
Early trends suggest that these themes failed to ignite local conversations or translate into electoral momentum.
In the 2020 assembly elections, the Congress won 27 of the 70 seats it contested, with a conversion rate of 38 percent. This year’s performance falls far below even that modest benchmark. While the party invested heavily in national-level messaging, the unfolding trends show that local issues, hyper-regional campaigns and the credibility of on-ground alliances dictated voter choices far more powerfully than the Congress strategy anticipated.
The early signals point to a humbling moment for a party that once shaped Bihar’s political identity, but now watches its influence thin out further with every passing election cycle.
