Gen. Syed Asim Munir has assumed the charge as Pakistan’s 17th Army Chief; someone with a rare professional experience of heading the country’s two powerful intelligence agencies—Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Military Intelligence. He replaced Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, who retired on 29 November after a six-year-long stint as the country’s army chief. Gen. Munir has taken over the army’s reins at a time when the civil-military relations in Pakistan are in complete disarray. His predecessor has left behind an unprecedented political and economic mess for him to clean. On the security front, he was welcomed by the armed group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)’s unanimous declaration of the end of the ‘indefinite’ ceasefire on 28 November and calls for attacks across Pakistan. Gen. Munir has his task cut out to address these multifarious challenges.
Army’s dented image
As the new COAS, Gen. Munir will have to work on improving the army’s tarnished public image. His predecessor, Gen. Bajwa had made several controversial decisions and actively interfered in the country’s politics, which sullied the military establishment’s ‘neutral’ image. Moreover, political leaders across the party lines such as Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) supremo Nawaz Sharif and former Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) accused Gen. Bajwa and other top military officials of dismantling civilian institutions and weakening the country’s democratic system.
While such accusations are not uncommon in Pakistan, one additional element this time was the massive public outrage over Gen. Bajwa’s overt interventionist policy. On several occasions, Imran Khan’s supporters verbally abused the army’s top leadership and held protests outside the military buildings for ‘illegally’ ousting the PTI government. It is noteworthy that favourable public sentiments are important for the army to justify its unlimited powers in Pakistan. Since Pakistan’s independence in 1947, its civilian leadership has been labelled as incompetent and corrupt, while the military establishment has largely avoided public criticism, either by force or political manipulations. Therefore, it will not be surprising if Gen. Bajwa goes unpunished after recent corruption allegations levelled against him and his family members.
However, Imran Khan’s campaign against the ‘imported government’ of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) and its alleged army ‘backers’ generated never-seen-before anger in the public against the security establishment. In addition to the political crisis, Gen. Bajwa’s tenure witnessed massive clampdown on the media, targeted attacks on journalists and human rights activists, and increased cases of forced disappearances of ethnic minorities like Baloch and Pashtuns. All these examples of the army’s undemocratic practices against civilians in the last six years further dented the military establishment’s public image, possibly beyond repair.
Civil-Military Tensions
Gen. Munir may reconsider Gen. Bajwa’s strategy of controlling the elected civilian leadership in Pakistan. The whole experiment of installing a ‘hybrid regime’ or to pitch a ‘third’ political front—Imran Khan’s PTI—against the Sharifs and Bhutto-Zardaris has been a big disaster for the army. More importantly, the state-sponsored political uncertainty severely impacted the country’s economy and weakened civilian institutions in Pakistan. The smooth political transition from Pakistan Peoples Party’s government to Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N government in 2013 had given a glimmer of hope to people that democracy was strengthening in Pakistan. However, Sharif’s unceremonious exit as Pakistan’s prime minister in July 2017 over corruption allegations unleashed by the 2016 Panama Papers leak dashed that hope. Besides legitimate corruption charges against Sharif, the military establishment also played a key role in weakening the PML-N government and prepared grounds for Imran Khan to unseat the Sharifs in the 2018 National Assembly elections.
The military succeeded in bringing Khan’s ‘hybrid regime’ to power and Gen. Bajwa got the three-year extension in November 2019, a possible reason for installing the PTI government in the first place. However, the Army failed to control Khan fully, who started exerting power after becoming the prime minister in August 2018. It was ironic, but not surprising that he ended up meeting the same fate as that of his political rival and predecessor—Nawaz Sharif. Nonetheless, Khan’s massive popularity as a former star cricketer and an “anti-corruption crusader” challenged the military establishment’s alleged decision to dump him.
Gen. Bajwa and his officers had on several occasions defended the army against allegations of “illegally” removing the PTI government and interfering in politics. Moreover, the immense public scrutiny on social media websites and persistent pressure from Khan forced the army to take the unheard step of Director General of ISI Lt. Gen. Nadeem Ahmed Anjum holding an unprecedented press conference where he tried to counter Khan’s confrontational narrative against the military establishment. In addition, Lt. Gen. Anjum also had to defend the army on serious accusations of attempting an assassination bid on Imran Khan and having an involvement in the mysterious killing of a pro-PTI journalist, Arshad Sharif, in Kenya.
Consequently, Gen. Munir may face increased scrutiny from the public and political actors over his involvement as the army chief in matters of domestic politics. He may prioritise improving civil-military relations, which is crucial for the country’s economic stability. The big test for him, of course, will be to ensure “free and fair” general elections in Pakistan. While Imran Khan continues to challenge the state institutions through his aggressive political campaign and mass popular support, it is noteworthy that the army holds the ultimate power in Pakistan. Therefore, as the new army chief, Gen. Munir may act apolitical to avoid unwanted controversies and public criticism, but the military establishment will remain deeply involved in the country’s politics.
Addressing internal rifts
In the initial few months, the new COAS will prioritise resolving internal differences within the Army and boost the morale of his soldiers, who are facing emerging security challenges on the western front. Two top generals, Lt. Gen. Azhar Abbas and Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed, who were also in the race of becoming army chief, have already sought ‘early retirement’ from the services. This development has raised speculations of possible internal dissents within the Army over Gen. Munir’s selection as the new COAS.
Lt. Gen. Hameed is known to be a close confidante of Imran Khan. He replaced Gen. Munir (then Lt. Gen.) as the Director General ISI in June 2019 after Khan removed the latter from the job, within eight months, in a rather unceremonious manner. Interestingly, Lt. Gen. Hameed was believed to the top contender for the job of the army chief had PTI government not been removed from power in April. The grudges of the past may create roadblocks for Gen. Munir to consolidate his power as the army chief and bring stability in the country.
Way Ahead
The ensuing political uncertainty, bludgeoned economic situation, and growing anti-military sentiments among the civilian population are known failures of Gen. Bajwa’s tenure as Pakistan’s Army Chief. Besides handling these issues, Gen. Munir faces grave security challenges such as the resurgent TTP amidst rising tensions between Islamabad and the Taliban’s interim government in Kabul. After months of negotiations, the TTP called off the ceasefire on 28 November as Pakistan rejected the group’s key demands—the reversal of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) merger with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and withdrawal of troops from tribal regions. Like his predecessors, Gen. Munir may initiate a new counterterrorism operations in the erstwhile FATA region to control growing militancy and consolidate his power as the top army commander.
On the eastern front with India, there has been a relative calm after both sides recommitted to the ceasefire in February 2021. Nevertheless, it is still early to predict whether Gen. Munir will follow his predecessor’s peace overtures with India. Based on his experience of heading two intelligence agencies (including heading ISI during the 2019 Pulwama suicide attack) and serving as an army commander in Gilgit-Baltistan, it is possible that Gen. Munir may bring a hawkish policy on India.
In conclusion, while Gen. Bajwa has left a tattered legacy for Gen. Munir, Pakistan Army’s tested tactics to distract and unite people in an event of an ‘external’ threat may come handy for the new COAS to improve the military establishment’s public image and sideline other grave issues. Until then, Pakistan may continue to witness political upheaval and tense civil-military relations.
