The quantity of wheat in the Central pool has reportedly dipped low as on July 1, and there was nearly as much wheat left as should be in the buffer stock and essential stock required for functioning. The primary reason for this is the because of low procurement and a huge drop in production in the 2021-22 crop marketing year.

However, during this period, the stock of rice was higher (134 per cent more) than the prescribed scale of buffer and required reserves. Typically, July 1 sees the peak stock levels of wheat since it comes after the main procurement months of April, May, and June. The latest figures show that as on July 1, the central pool had about 28.51 million tonnes as against the 27.58 million tonnes required to be kept as buffer and essential stocks, according to a report in Business Standard.

Earlier in 2008, the quantity of wheat in the Central pool was less than this on July 1 when the stocks were 24.91 million tonnes of wheat. The data shows that for the first time since the change in storage rules on July 1, 2015, the quantity of wheat as on 1 July has been so close to the buffer and required stock.

In contrast, the Central pool is estimated to have around 31.5 million tonnes of rice as on July 1, which is much higher than the required reserves of 13.5 million tonnes. These stocks don’t include about 23.15 million tonnes of uncultivated paddy lying with the mill owners, which is the highest since 2015.

Joining the Central pool means an additional 15.51 million tonnes of rice will become available for the government’s Public Distribution System (PDS) and other programmes. The data shows that India had 83.36 million tonnes of food grains (wheat and rice) as on July 1, which is the lowest in the last three years i.e., 2019. This does not include coarse cereals, which have very little reserves.

In the current fiscal (FY23), the Centre’s wheat procurement declined by nearly 59 per cent to 18.78 million tonnes as compared to the previous fiscal as farmers sold the crop to private traders instead of the government procurement arrangement at higher prices. In addition, the total production of wheat was also low. According to the third advance estimates, wheat production in the 2021-22 crop season ended June has been estimated at 106.41 million tonnes, according to the third advance estimates.

Rahul Chauhan, commodity analyst at iGrain India, told the financial daily: “Due to low stocks it seems Food Corporation of India (FCI) will not be in a hurry to sell wheat and rice in open markets. And, millers will have to buy wheat directly from either stockists, farmers or mandis. Prices may jump during festivals and due to demand from millers.”