Global markets are set to begin the first full trading week of 2026 on edge after a major geopolitical shock involving Venezuela, a country with the world’s largest oil reserves.  

Investor focus has shifted sharply to safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while oil prices are expected to move higher amid fears of supply disruptions.

Markets turned cautious after US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife during a military operation over the weekend.

The US has charged them with drug trafficking, escalating tensions in an already fragile region. The development is being seen as a major geopolitical event that could unsettle energy markets and increase demand for safe assets at the start of the year.

Gold began 2026 on a strong note, rising over 1 percent to trade near USD 4,370 per ounce, supported by geopolitical risks and expectations that US interest rates may ease later this year.

Silver also gained more than 2 per cent, moving close to USD 73 per ounce, helped by dollar softness, supply deficits and rising industrial demand.

However, on a weekly basis, both metals saw profit booking after last year’s sharp rally. COMEX gold slipped nearly 5 per cent, while silver dropped over 8 percent as higher margin requirements forced some traders to cut positions.

In the domestic market, MCX Gold futures saw a sharp fall at the start of the week, marking their steepest single-day decline in two months.

Since then, prices have moved in a narrow range. Analysts say gold may recover if prices hold above key support levels, but a sustained fall below these levels could trigger further correction.

Oil prices also opened the year on a positive note, with WTI crude ending the week near USD 57.3 per barrel. Oil had a tough 2025, falling nearly 20 per cent due to oversupply concerns.

However, rising tensions involving Venezuela and renewed Russia–Ukraine strikes on energy infrastructure have increased the risk premium.

Markets are now watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on January 4, where the group is widely expected to maintain its pause on additional supply increases.

Base metals showed strength at the start of the year, extending their year-end momentum. Copper prices moved closer to record highs, while aluminium crossed USD 3,000 per tonne for the first time since 2022. Strong demand on Asian exchanges helped support prices globally