US Vice President Kamala Harris has been leading former US President Donald Trump by four points each in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin among likely voters, according to the new polls conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.
Kamala Harris has transformed the 2024 presidential elections as it shows a major shift from previous Times/Siena polls, which found Trump leading Harris and President Joe Biden by an average of one or two points each across the same three states.
However, sometimes, it is hard to explain why polls shift from week to week or month to month. The New York Times reported that it is hard to explain why voters shift at all in today’s polarised politics.
Until now, the basic dynamic of the race was driven by US President Biden’s unpopularity. It prevented Democrats from running their usual strategy against Trump and his MAGA allies, making an election a referendum on Trump by running a broadly acceptable candidate.
Notably, millions of voters were left with an agonizing choice between two candidates they disliked. In the poll, at least 49 per cent of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin highlight that they have a favourable view of her, a level neither Harris nor Biden obtained in any previous Times/Siena poll this cycle, The New York Times reported.
Donald Trump’s views haven’t diminished, in fact, his favorability rating ticked up slightly, to 46 per cent across the three states, which is just enough to represent his highest rating in the history of Times/Siena polling. According to a majority of people, Harris is honest and intelligent and she brings the right kind of change and has the temperament to be president, adding that she has a clear vision for the country.
However, a majority doesn’t think she’s too far to the left, either, only 44 per cent of likely voters say she’s too liberal or progressive, compared with 44 per cent who say she’s not too far either way and another 6 per cent who say she isn’t progressive enough, as reported by The News York Times.
Moreover, Kamala Harris may be polling like a generic Democrat, but she will now be subject to much more scrutiny and attack, The New York Times reported. Until now, Haris has been benefitted of very favourable media coverage for a few weeks now, along with major endorsements and an outpouring of goodwill from voters who had been yearning for an alternative to two disliked older candidates.
However, this period will not last forever, and the question is whether she will retain this kind of support when the going gets tough, The New York Times reported. Certainly, the poll doesn’t offer an indication either way. But the huge swing in opinion on Harris in just the last few weeks is a reminder that the public doesn’t necessarily have firmly held views about her.
If Trump’s lead over Harris in earlier polling wasn’t necessarily based on solid views of the vice president, it can’t be assumed that her lead over Trump stands on firm ground today
