Rahul Gandhi will be addressing his first rally in Gujarat as the coastal state heads for elections on December 1 and 5 in two phases.
He was last in the state on September 5 when he addressed booth level workers in Ahmedabad. Since September 7, the Congress leader has been on his Bharat Jodo Yatra which began in the southern state of Kerala and is now ready to progress to Madhya Pradesh after wrapping up the Maharashtra leg on Sunday.
The padyatris will take a break on Monday as Rahul Gandhi addresses rallies in Surat and Rajkot. His rallies are focused on Gujarat’s Saurashtra belt – a region that is 78 per cent rural and dominated by farmers’ community.
Why Saurashtra?
Congress has picked Saurashtra because the party had made inroads in this region in the 2017 Assembly elections. Saurashtra sends the maximum number of legislators to the assembly. It was also the hotbed of the Patidar movement led by Hardik Patel who has jumped ship from Congress to the BJP ahead of the polls.
Political observers said that Congress gained at the cost of the BJP due to the Patidar agitation.
Meanwhile, Surat – known for its diamonds and textiles – was chosen due to its widespread anti-GST protests.
Congress had won 30 of the 54 seats in Saurashtra-Kutch region in 2017. It won just 16 seats in the region in 2012. While Congress hopes to repeat the success, the political realities have changed now. The Patidar movement has largely subsided. Its leader is in the BJP camp.
Anti-incumbency may be a factor that plays to Congress’s advantage. BJP has reigned Gujarat for 27 years. And this time, the usual bipolar contest has been shaken up by the entry of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
While some believe that AAP queers the pitch for Congress by cutting its votes, Congress is hoping that AAP would cut into BJP’s urban votes in the Saurashtra region, leaving the r ural voters to Congress.
AAP is particularly eyeing the Surat region where it emerged as the principal opposition in the 2021 civic polls, leaving behind the Congress which drew a blank in the seat.
Can Rahul energise cadre?
Congress hopes that Rahul Gandhi, even though he is visiting the poll-bound state after a 2-month gap, will be able to energise the cadre. Besides, the Congress leader skipping Gujarat altogether ahead of elections would be telling.
The Gujarat Congress has been ravaged by rebellions and its campaign has lost the momentum it gained in 2017 when BJP won only with a narrow margin.
Several factors have upset Congress’s calculations this time, including the AAP threat and Hardik Patel’s U-turn.
Will Rahul entering the scene at the last minute make much of a difference?
