After protracted delays and hiccups, the much-awaited intra-Afghan peace talks got underway in Doha on 12 September 2020. This effort is aimed at ending the 19-year conflict that ravaged Afghanistan and made generations of Afghans to suffer. However, the talks, which follow the 29 February US-Taliban agreement on withdrawal of US troops, are likely to be influenced by Pakistan’s hold on the Taliban.

The Taliban has been Pakistan’s proxy in the terror landscape of Afghanistan from its inception. The secret ties between Taliban and Pakistan’s military establishment were disclosed when a Taliban dignitary in the outfit’s political office in Qatar said that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was deeply involved in every decision made by their office.

Though this was the first time that Taliban openly admitted it, Islamabad’s growing influence on the Afghan Taliban was writ large in the appointment of Mullah Abdul Gani Baradar as the director of the Taliban’s political office in Doha in 2019. Just before the start of intra-Afghan peace process, a Taliban delegation from its political office in Qatar, headed by Mullah Baradar and deputy emir responsible for political affair visited Pakistan and held meetings with Pakistani officials, including Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi.

Islamabad’s growing influence on the Afghan Taliban was writ large in the appointment of Mullah Abdul Gani Baradar as the director of the Taliban’s political office in Doha in 2019.

Coming at a time when Pakistan had imposed sanctions on 88 terrorists, including some members of the Taliban, to avoid black-listing by the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF), this meeting indeed caused eyebrows to raise. The meeting was for nothing but to take instructions from Pakistan for the upcoming peace talks.

Deep state contacts

Mullah Baradar, a co-founder of Taliban and a top commander in the Mullah Omer’s Taliban Government before it collapsed in 2001, had made ‘deep state’ contacts in Pakistan even before his capture in Karachi in February 2010. Baradar was working on a political settlement and also coordinated terror operations in southern Afghanistan when he was captured in a joint operation by the CIA and the ISI.

Baradar’s firm contacts with the Pakistani deep state, especially the army establishment and ISI, ensured that his arrest was kept in dark for more than a week on pretext of getting some crucial information. He remained in Pakistani prisons for nine years and became the go-to-man for Islamabad to keep covert operations in Afghanistan intact, including high-profile target-killings.

Mullah Baradar was released in 2018 by Pakistani authorities at the request of the US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad. The release brought Pakistan closer to Afghan Taliban leadership. It also improved the US-Pakistan relations. Though the US did not comment directly on their involvement in the release of Baradar, it acknowledged that, “his release will help facilitate a peace process.”

Strengthening talks

Soon after his release, Baradar was appointed director of the political office in Doha in January 2019. A statement issued by the Taliban said the appointment was made facilitate its senior most leaders to hold key positions and “to strengthen and properly handle the ongoing negotiations process with the United States.”

However, the killing of an American solider that derailed the nine months’ negotiations as US President Donald Trump pulled out of the peace process. He also cancelled the meeting with Taliban and Afghan President Ashraf Gani in Camp David.

To set the peace process in Afghanistan back on track, in October, 2019, Baradar visited Pakistan with a 11-member delegation and held talks with Pakistani officials on a wide range of issues. The stalled peace process was discussed with the power corridors of Pakistan, including Prime Minister Imran Khan and army chief Genl Qamar Javed Bajwa.

The peace agreement between the US and Taliban was signed between Baradar and the US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad in the presence of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on 29 February 2020. It is claimed that the peace pact was supposed to be signed by Sher Mohammad Abas Stanikzai, but Pakistani Military and ISI replaced him with Baradar, their own tamed Taliban leader.

President Trump hailed the development and had a 35-minutes long phone call with Baradar. This was followed by increased synergy between Taliban and the US forces in the battlefields of Afghanistan, specially to crush ISIS and other anti-American forces. However, the government forces of Afghanistan and civilian government remained the target of Afghan Taliban even after the peace agreement.

Ramped-up violence against the Afghanistan government officials and its forces carry the signature of the influence of Pakistan’s deep state over the Taliban and its leaders. The recent unsuccessful attack on the Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh on 9 September 2020 was the handiwork of Pakistani military establishment and ISI, though Taliban denied any involvement in the attack.

Unrealistic expectations

Amrullah Saleh, who is on the radar of Pakistan’s agencies, has survived many such attacks. He is considered most critical to Pakistan’s involvement in crossborder terror and internal politics of Afghanistan. The attack on Saleh came after his tweet on the Durand Line where he wrote: “No Afghan politician of national stature can overlook the issue of Durand Line. It will condemn him or her in life and afterlife. It is an issue which needs discussions and resolution. Expecting us to gift it for free is unrealistic. Peshawar used to be the winter capital of Afghanistan.”

The Taliban has no intentions for ceasefire, but has reaffirmed its support and commitment to peace agreement with the US.

Furthermore, when the intra-Afghan peace talks started in Doha on 12 September 2020 after the final batch of dangerous Taliban prisoners were released and transferred to Qatar. The Taliban has no intentions for ceasefire, but has reaffirmed its support and commitment to peace agreement with the US.

Calls for immediate ceasefire for the comprehensive political solution have fallen flat. Seemingly because Pakistan has used the Taliban as a lever to keep up pressure on Afghanistan government. Pakistan can use this leverage also in upcoming FATF plenary session of October to save the country from blacklisting.

The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who was present at the inaugural session of the intra-Afghan peace talks said that the US expected the development to lead Afghanistan “away from violence and corruption and toward peace and prosperity.” Baradar also reaffirmed commitment to the outfit’s agreement with the US and said Taliban will strive for a positive outcome. However, the influence of Pakistan over the Taliban, which already has an upper-hand in the negotiations, will play a critical role in determining the fate of the peace process.