India’s sugar production for the 2025-26 sugar season is projected to rise sharply to 343.5 lakh tons, up around 16 per cent from 296.1 lakh tons in 2024-25, according to the first advance estimates released by the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) this week.
 
The estimates, based on post-monsoon satellite imagery captured in October 2025, were reviewed at ISMA’s Executive Committee meeting held on November 4. The assessment reflects improved cane acreage, favourable weather, and higher yields across major sugar-producing states nationwide.
 
The total sugarcane acreage for 2025-26 is estimated at 57.35 lakh hectares, slightly higher than 57.11 lakh hectares in the previous year, representing a marginal 0.4 per cent increase. The improvement is attributed to healthy monsoon performance, sufficient reservoir levels, and strong cane development programs in key regions.

ISMA noted that rainfall has been abundant across most sugar belts, and reservoir storage remains adequate to meet crop requirements. The imagery and field reports suggest a good to very good crop condition nationwide. Maharashtra, a key sugar producer, is poised to achieve a record output of 130 lakh tons in 2025-26, a significant increase from 93.51 lakh tons last year, nearly 39 per cent higher, it said.
 
The western state’s cane area has increased to 14.71 lakh hectares from 13.82 lakh hectares, aided by abundant rainfall and high reservoir levels. A greater share of plant cane and improved yield potential are expected to contribute to this growth. In Karnataka, sugarcane acreage has risen by around 6 per cent to 6.8 lakh hectares, with gross sugar production estimated at 63.5 lakh tons, up from 54.89 lakh tons in 2024-25.
 
“Similar to Maharashtra, favourable rainfall and adequate reservoir levels have enhanced crop conditions, leading to improved sugarcane yield and sugar recovery,” ISMA has said. Uttar Pradesh, another key producer, is expected to produce 103.2 lakh tons of sugar in 2025-26, compared to 101.01 lakh tons in the previous year.
 

Although the cane area declined by about 3 per cent (from 23.30 to 22.57 lakh hectares), improvements in crop health, disease control, and varietal development are expected to drive higher yields and recoveries. “However, the overall condition of the standing crop is significantly better than last year. Ongoing cane development initiatives at the mill level — including timely interventions and varietal replacement — are expected to minimise red rot and other disease incidences in the 2025-26 sugar season,” ISMA said.
 

Only minor variations in cane area and production are anticipated in the remaining states. The estimated diversion of sugar towards ethanol production in 2025-26 is expected at 34 lakh tons, slightly lower than 35.01 lakh tons in the previous season, 2024-25. After accounting for this diversion, the net sugar production is projected at 309.5 lakh tons, compared to 261.08 lakh tons in 2024-25.
 
With a comfortable sugar balance, India is well-positioned to export nearly 20 lakh tons this season, ISMA said after releasing its advance estimates.
 
The central government has decided to allow export of 15 lakh tonne of sugar this season, besides removing 50 per cent export duty on molasses. Union Minister of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Pralhad Joshi, had indicated this in a letter written to Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah dated November 7, in regards to Karnataka sugarcane farmers.