Indian equity markets are expected to be on “firmer footing” in 2026, with domestic demand strongly supported by “macro front, lower inflation, healthy post-monsoon harvests, and the wealth effect of gold,” a report said on Tuesday.
The report from Bajaj Finserv Asset Management Limited said corporate earnings should improve on government tax measures and RBI monetary easing, pointing to a broad‑based cyclical recovery.
The asset management firm forecasted sectoral leadership to be driven by domestic cyclicals and consumption, while exports could gain momentum as tariff-related uncertainties ease and the rupee stabilises.
CY25 was marked by heightened volatility from shifting trade tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and persistent foreign institutional investor outflows, yet markets showed resilience underpinned by strong domestic fundamentals and a shift in investor dynamics, the report said.
Large‑cap stocks provided relative stability while mid‑caps returned around 5 per cent. In comparison, small‑caps fell approximately 8 per cent, reflecting a flight to quality as investors favoured balance sheet strength and earnings visibility.
Sectoral leadership rotated every two to three months after the September 2024 correction, with the auto sector (21.7 per cent) and consumption taking turns at the forefront, aided by tax cuts, duty cuts, and festive demand.
Export sectors lagged due to tariff-related uncertainties, despite rupee depreciation and tariff uncertainties weighing down on IT services, which declined 13.7 per cent.
The Nifty 50 delivered around 9 per cent in 2025, while volatility was central to sentiment as India VIX crossed the 20‑mark six times between January and May. It peaked at 22.79 in April, before averaging about 13.5 in the second half, the report noted.
Another recent report by Standard Chartered showed that reflation in the Indian economy, a possible revival in corporate earnings, and the return of foreign portfolio investors are among the positive signs that Indian equities will push higher year-on-year through 2026.
