Pramode Mallik

Will Foreign Minister S Jaishankar discuss the General Elections in Bangladesh when he meets Bangladesh Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain in Oman on February 17?

Will India put pressure on Bangladesh interim government to hold General Elections soon, as promised, and allow Sheikh Hasina’s party Awami League to participate?

Hossain will meet Jaishanakr in Muscat on the sidelines of the Indian Ocean Conference 2025, scheduled for February 16-17.

New Delhi-based research institute India Foundation has organised the IOC in collaboration with Oman’s foreign ministry.

It will be the second minister-level talks between the two south Asian neighbours after Sheikh Hasina was deposed in a nation-wide movement.

What Will Transpire In India-Bangladesh Talks?

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited Dhaka in December and met Bangladesh’s Foreign Secretary Md Jasim Uddin.

The two sides agreed to improve the strained bilateral relations and work together on the areas of common interest.

Analysts believe, Jaishankar is most likely to pick up from where Vikram Misri left, but with a difference.

Will India Bat For Democracy In Bangladesh?

While Misri emphasised on improving the bilateral relations, Jaishankar is most likely to emphasise on improving the political dynamics and strengthen democracy in the country.

After hundreds of thousands of the people came out on the streets protesting against the Prime Minister, stormed, looted and rasacked her official residence on August 5, 2024, Sheikh Hasina fled her country and took refuge in India.

Bangladesh military took control and announced to hold the General Elections in three months.

Though Chief Advisor to the interim government, Muhammad Yunus, announced that the polls would be held soon, some of his colleagues said that the elections would be held only after the reforms in many sectors re carried out.

It was suggested that the elections may be held in two years.

When Will Bangladesh Go To Polls?

However, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Secretary General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir claimed that the transitional government is making preparations to hold the elections by December this year.

He said this after meeting Yunus in Dhaka and expressed hope that the consensus among political parties for holding the polls would be reached as early as possible.

Contrary to the general expectations of the masses and the promises made by the military, Anti-Discrimination Student Movement, the umbrella organisation behind the uprising that ended the 15-year-rule of Sheikh Hasina, has claimed that the polls would be held only after required reforms.

Bangladesh General Elections After Reforms?

Bangladesh interim government has formed six commissions to carry out reforms in six areas, including, the Banglasesh Constitution, the electoral system, the judiciary, the anti-corruption system, public administration and police administration.

Talking about the possible elections, Law Advisor Asif Nazrul said that a meeting of political parties would be held this month to reach a national consensus on the recommendations of the six commissions.

Will Bangladesh Ban Awami League?

However, it is not yet clear if the Awami League would be invited to the meeting.

Though the party that spearheaded the struggle against Pakistani occupation, has not yet been banned, may come under intene pressure.

The knives are out and not only the radical Islamist organisation Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, but also the mainstream outfit Bangladsh Nationalist Party have demanded to ban the Awami League.

Upping the ante against the arch-rival, Alamgir demanded that stern actions should be taken against those in the administration who were “friends of the fascist regime” and who looted the country’s resources.

Political observers believe, the interim government is losing ground, it is becoming increasing unpopular.

Why Is Muhammad Yunus Becoming Unpopular?

The general masses have become disillusioned with the Nobel laureate and his government as the inflation has skyrocketed with food items going out of the bound of the poor.

The situation has further worsened with unemployment soaring as most of the MSMEs have been closed down for lack of raw mateirals as imports from India has been closed.

The law and order has almost completely collapsed, minorities including the Hindus and politicals rival particularly those from Awami League are being attacked.

There is complete chaos in educational institutions, supporters of Awami League are forced, sometimes beaten and threatend, to resign.

Analysts believe, as Muhammad Yunus-led dispensation is losing ground, they do not want to allow Sheikh Hasina’s party to contest fearing that it may regain some of the lost ground.

The radical Islamist outfits are also demanding their pounds of flesh and the economist- turned-politician is under immense pressure.

Muhammad Yunus Under India’s Pressure?

Yunus is also under the pressure of India, the powerful and dependable neighbour, which wants the elections to be free and fare. New Delhi also wants it to be inclusive, allowing all stakeholders, including, Awami League.

With this background, Md. Touhid Hossain is expecting to meet Jaishanker, who is most likely to make the intentions of India clear.

Will the Nobel winner economist listen to India?