NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, said, “Brent Oil (Oct’25) from USD 72.07 has a short-term target of USD 76. Year end 2025 could reach USD 80-82. Downside support and cap at USD 69. U.S. President Donald Trump has given Russia a deadline of 10-12 days to end the war in Ukraine, failing which it runs a risk of additional sanctions and secondary tariffs of 100 per cent on countries trading with Russia, which would push the oil prices higher.”
This move by US President Trump could further increase oil prices, as countries dependent on Russian crude would face a difficult choice between buying cheaper oil and facing heavy export tariffs to the US.
For WTI Crude Oil (Sep’25), experts expect a short-term target of USD 73 from the current level of USD 69.65. The price could rise to USD 76-79 by the end of 2025, while the downside support is at USD 65.
Experts said such developments could disrupt the global oil market. A supply shock may result from reduced spare production capacity, which would likely push oil prices higher through 2026.
The dilemma remains that President Trump wants lower oil prices, but a quick increase in US oil production is not possible, as it involves infrastructure, labour, and investment.
Energy expert Narendra Taneja told ANI, “Russia exports 5 million barrels of oil into the global (oil) supply system every day. Crude oil prices would rise significantly – USD 100 to 120 per barrel, if not more – if the Russian oil is forced out of the global supply chains”.
He also added, “If Russian oil stops flowing into Indian refineries, prices would rise globally for sure. There would be no shortage of oil in India because our refiners import from 40 different countries, but balancing the price for consumers would be a challenge.”
Even if Saudi Arabia and select OPEC countries step in to fill the supply gap, it will take time, adding to short-term price pressure. The oil market could shift into a deficit situation even if OPEC+ does not announce further production cuts.
Meanwhile, the recent US-EU trade deal has provided some support to the market, but geopolitical tensions persist and continue to add upside risks. The market is also closely watching US inventory levels and the upcoming interest rate decision, with a stronger US dollar keeping some pressure on oil prices.
The extended US-China trade truce has also supported market sentiment, but risks remain elevated in the oil sector.
