Over the course of a single devastating week, the Taliban have swept through Afghanistan, claiming provincial capital after capital before taking control of Kabul on Sunday.
The hardline Islamist group’s offensive has taken place even while the US continues its troop withdrawal expected to conclude in September. With Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fleeing to Tajikistan earlier this week, the process to re-establish an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is underway, as countries across the world scramble to evacuate their respective embassies safely.
The world has watched in shock at the rapid advancement of the Taliban. With peace negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government in Doha now made redundant, the geopolitical ramifications of the insurgent group’s takeover are quickly being digested by leaders across the world.
As it struggles to evacuate its embassy staff and soldiers, the US has expressed frustration that Afghanistan’s defence forces have failed to muster a resistance but President Biden has insisted that he holds no regret over his decision to proceed with the withdrawal.
The two-decade-long ‘war on terror’ is now being viewed as a spectacular failure in nation-building, but the nature of the US withdrawal is also attracting international criticism.
The shape of the Taliban’s governance model is yet to take form but many analysts believe it is unlikely to be drastically different from that witnessed between 1996 and 2001. Most concerning is the erosion of women’s liberties, an increasing threat of extremism emerging in the region, and an imminent refugee crisis.
On Monday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a clarion call to the world at a special emergency meeting when he said, “The international community must unite to make sure that Afghanistan is never again used as a platform or safe haven for terrorist organisations,” adding, “I appeal to the Security Council – and the international community as a whole – to stand together, to work together and act together.”
Last week, Germany threatened to end financial support to Afghanistan if the Taliban rose to power and Sharia law was enforced in the country. Foreign minister Heiko Maas, speaking to German broadcaster ZDF, said, “We will not send another cent to this country if the Taliban take complete control, introduce Sharia law and turn it into a caliphate.”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, reportedly, told her party that the developments in Afghanistan are likely to take a long time to deal with. But while she stressed the importance of helping Afghanistan’s neighbours in dealing with Afghan refugees, she has, to date, refrained from using the same welcoming rhetoric towards refugees that she did in 2015 during the Syrian crisis.
This restraint has been echoed by several other European nations including Austria, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands and Greece which, along with Germany, sent a joint letter to the European Commission at the start of the month warning it against suspending deportations of Afghan migrants, arguing that it would “motivate even more Afghan citizens to leave their home for the EU.” The migrant crisis borne out of the Syrian conflict, it bears mentioning, led to a wave of anti-immigration sentiment and the rise of several populist parties in Europe.
Britain Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also called on nations to come together to address the developments in Afghanistan, saying, “We don’t want anybody bilaterally recognising the Taliban. We want a united position amongst all the like-minded as far as we can get one so that we do whatever we can to prevent Afghanistan lapsing back into being a breeding ground for terror.” Britain has also reiterated its commitment to accept refugees that assisted British forces in Afghanistan. Other Nordic nations have also made similar pledges.
However, arriving at an international consensus will not be straightforward. To date, countries are largely viewing the chaos unfolding in Afghanistan through nationalistic lenses, toward protecting their own strategic interests.
Russia, for instance, while stopping short of officially recognising the new Taliban government, has expressed an inclination to open a dialogue with the group’s leadership. Moscow, it is worth noting, has hosted the Taliban for talks on several occasions, effectively boosting the group’s international legitimacy.
However, Russia’s foreign ministry has noted that it will move with caution in developing a relationship with the Taliban government, adding that it would monitor the group’s conduct before officially recognising it. Analysts have noted that, although Russia is expected to take a tempered approach to talks with the Taliban, its overarching aim to increase its military presence in the region takes precedence.
Similarly, China has not officially endorsed the Taliban either but has expressed an openness to talks. A growing rivalry between Washington and Beijing, some analysts have noted, may see Chinese President Xi Jinping come to view the regime change in Afghanistan as an opportunity to dilute the US’ regional influence. China also has significant economic stakes in Afghanistan including a copper mine and several oil blocks.
Working with the Taliban to ensure stability in the region is also in China’s interests owing to the $50 billion worth of Belt-and-Rad projects being implemented in neighbouring Pakistan. Its attitude towards the Taliban though, political observers have said, will be heavily contingent on the Taliban’s capacity to reduce the risk of Afghanistan turning into a hotbed of extremism.
