Michael Kugelman, a US-based foreign policy expert and the Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, on Monday drew a bleak comparison between India’s deteriorating ties with Canada and its long-standing strained relations with Pakistan.  

As tensions between India and Canada continue to escalate, Kugelman said, “One could not have imagined that things in this relationship could get worse, but they have.”  

Kugelman highlighted the seriousness of the situation, noting that the diplomatic fallout between the two countries bears striking similarities to the Indo-Pakistan relationship.  

“This is a relationship that’s now hit rock bottom and indeed, looking at recent developments, certainly is reminiscent of India’s relations with Pakistan in terms of these extremely serious allegations being made, in terms of senior diplomats being expelled, as well as the use of blistering language in government statements, it’s all there and of course, the core allegation that we’re hearing from India that Canada is sheltering and sponsoring anti-India terrorists. This is what we’re used to hearing India say about Pakistan,” he pointed out.  

Kugelman also spoke about the internal political dynamics in Canada that have contributed to the diplomatic rift, saying, “There are a lot of factors at play here. Certainly, one could acknowledge the relevance of the domestic political realities in Canada.” 

He further noted that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s comments on India’s internal matters, particularly his support for the farmers’ protests against agricultural laws, had sparked tensions.  

“It is notable that PM Justin Trudeau has made some comments on internal developments in India that one would not expect a Canadian PM to make, such as commenting and expressing support for farmers protesting against Indian agricultural laws,” Kugelman added.  

While Canada denies harbouring extremists or terrorists, Kugelman pointed out that India remains firm in its disagreement. “Canada does not consider that it is harbouring extremists and terrorists, and certainly this is something that India very rigorously disagrees about,” he said.  

Kugelman emphasised that these differing views are central to the ongoing diplomatic breakdown between the two countries, adding, “This comes back to the issue of there being so many factors at play. This government in Canada has taken a series of decisions that include expressing support for Sikhs in India, in terms of the farmers’ movement in India.”  

He also noted India’s specific frustration with Justin Trudeau, saying, “I was struck how in this long statement there was indeed an explicit reference to Justin Trudeau and his government… That reflects long-standing anger in New Delhi about Justin Trudeau and the government’s actions and politics that have contributed to this decision. New Delhi feels that Canada does not want to address those.”  

India on Monday expelled six Canadian diplomats hours after it summoned Canada’s Charge d’Affaires Stewart Wheeler and conveyed that the “baseless targeting” of the Indian High Commissioner and other diplomats and officials in Canada was completely unacceptable.  

This move came after Canada expelled six Indian diplomats after police collected evidence they were part of an Indian government “campaign of violence,” news agency Reuters reported citing a Canadian government source earlier.  

Earlier, on Monday, India “strongly” rejected a diplomatic communication from Canada suggesting that the Indian High Commissioner and other diplomats were “persons of interest” in an investigation and termed it as “preposterous imputations” and part of the political agenda of the Justin Trudeau government.  

In a hard-hitting statement, India said Prime Minister Trudeau’s hostility to India has long been in evidence and his government has consciously provided space to violent extremists and terrorists “to harass, threaten and intimidate Indian diplomats and community leaders in Canada.”  

The ties between India and Canada soured after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in a parliamentary address last year, claimed that he has “credible allegations” of India’s hand in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.  

Nijjar, designated a terrorist by India’s National Investigation Agency in 2020, was shot dead outside a gurdwara in Surrey in June 2023.  

India strongly denied the allegations, calling them “absurd” and “motivated.” It also accused Canada of giving space to extremist and anti-India elements in their country.