Every second Pakistani politician is a ‘Modi ka yaar’ these days. The name of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is becoming a popular political analogy in Pakistan, albeit not on a positive note.
It all started when former Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif addressed a virtual party meeting in Lahore. He alleged interference of some army generals in politics. Soon, the Imran Khan government registered a treason case in Lahore against 40 leaders of Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N), the country’s biggest opposition party.
Elected Prime Minister of Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Raja Farooq Haider was also among those who were booked in the treason case just because they heard Nawaz Sharif’s speech during the party’s virtual meeting.
It was the first incident in Pakistan’s history that an elected Kashmiri leader was booked for treason. This FIR triggered a strong reaction in Pakistan and the charges were withdrawn within days.
This was the Imran Khan government’s first defeat.
The government was not expecting big gatherings in opposition rallies due to the coronavirus pandemic. When Opposition announced its first rally in Gujranwala, law enforcement agencies said there was a terror threat and the Opposition must delay its protests.
However, the Opposition refused to listen to these warnings. Following this, some government ministers declared that a new opposition alliance — Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) — was a ‘proxy of Narendra Modi’.
On the other hand, when opposition parties started their rallies from Gujranwala, their leaders also declared that Imran Khan had quietly sold Jammu & Kashmir to Narendra Modi and was only fooling Pakistanis by just drumming up the Kashmir issue.
The government responded by banning speeches of Nawaz Sharif but most people in Pakistan were able to hear his hard-hitting speech in Gujranwala that was targeted against the Army Chief and the ISI head. In his speech, Nawaz Sharif targeted only some individuals and not the entire military institution. He also once again criticised the interference of army generals in politics.
In Pakistan, it is a misunderstanding that Nawaz Sharif is the first leader from Punjab to openly level allegations against the Army.
In his 2011 book, ‘Pakistan, A Personal History, Imran Khan made similar allegations against the Army and the ISI. Nawaz Sharif at present is only repeating what Imran Khan had already said in his book and in many interviews given to this writer.
Nawaz Sharif never addressed a big rally in Karachi because PPP was the host of that rally. PPP is ruling Sindh and never took the risk of annoying the Army leadership by inviting Nawaz Sharif for a speech on video link. However, this precaution of thee PPP was taken as weakness.
Few hours after the rally in Karachi, Maryam Nawaz Sharif’s husband (Capt Retd Safdar) was arrested from a hotel in Karachi. The arrest of Capt Retd Safdar was a big blunder for Imran Khan and his supporters in powerful places.
It is no more a secret that some military officials forced the Sindh Police to issue arrest orders against Safdar. Later, his arrest triggered a major controversy in Pakistan.
What worsened the crisis was that Inspector General of Police, Sindh, alongwith more than 40 other senior police officials applied for leave because they were “mistreated” by the army officials. This incident endorsed the position that Nawaz Sharif had taken in some of his speeches. Soon, the Sindh Police was headed for an unannounced strike.
PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari asked Army Chief General Bajwa to investigate who forced IGP Sindh to issue arrest orders against Safdar.
The Army Chief immediately responded to this. He called Bilawal and IGP Sindh and promised investigation. Later, Safdar was released by a local court.
This was the second defeat for the Imran Khan government.
Now, it was expected that Nawaz Sharif may cross all red lines in his rally in Quetta. Government ministers tried to create differences between the PPP and PML(N) by claiming that Bilawal may not address the Quetta rally.
There were some behind the scene contacts made with PPP leaders. Besides this, the government suspended internet services in Quetta and also jammed satellite system to block Nawaz Sharif’s address.
However, Baloch leader Akhtar Mengal failed the plans by just providing a phone set with Dubai number to PML(N) using which Nawaz Sharif successfully addressed his Quetta rally.
As expected, he crossed all red lines in his speech on October 25.
Bilawal also addressed the rally via a video link from Gilgit and said “PDM will not break”.
is speech was a disappointment for Imran Khan.
Immediately after the Quetta rally, Nawaz Sharif’s daughter, Maryam Nawaz Sharif told me that her brother Hassan Nawaz has received threats in London.
Hasan Nawaz gave details of these messages to the Scotland Yard. Spokesperson of Maryam Nawaz is the former Governor of Sindh province.
Besides this, Muhammad Zubair, brother of Planning Minister Asad Umar, told me that his wife has received a threat from an intelligence operator.
There was a visible panic in government circles as well as on pro-government media channels after the opposition’s Quetta rally.
Now, there is a long break in PDA rallies. The next rally will be held on November 25 in Peshawar because two big opposition parties PPP and PML(N) need some time for the election campaign in Gilgit Baltistan.
Election there will be held on November 15 without the involvement of Army troops. It is the first time that the Army has refused to provide security to polling stations. They want to avoid another controversy, which is a very positive sign.
It is important to note that the Army leadership is trying to distance itself from political controversies but PM Imran Khan is openly trying to establish that Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa is standing behind his government.
A recent verdict by the Supreme Court of Pakistan about a reference against Justice Qazi Faez Isa is also very encouraging for the Opposition.
The Supreme Court rejected a reference of President Arif Alvi against Justice Isa. This judge wrote a verdict sometime back against the involvement of ISI in political affairs.
His verdict annoyed powerful people and they used an unknown journalist to complain against the only judge from Balochistan.
Opposition parties think that the verdict in support of Justice Isa is an endorsement of their stand and this is Imran Khan’s another defeat.
All lawyers’ bodies, journalist organisations and human rights bodies were supporting Justice Isa.
At present, there is a break in the activities of the Opposition alliance PDM for some weeks but Nawaz Sharif’s PML(N) is at work.
Maryam Nawaz Sharif will be visiting Gilgit Baltistan in a few days where she will address big rallies. She will also address six party rallies in six important cities of Punjab between November 10 and 25.
The PML(N) is trying to prepare its supporters in Punjab for a final countdown against Imran Khan in December. They party is levelling strong allegations against a prime minister who is considered to be a proxy of the Army Chief.
Former Foreign Minister and parliamentary leader of PML(N) Khawaja Muhammad Asif claimed in the National Assembly on October 28 that the government of Imran Khan will release Indian spy Kalbhushan Jadav very soon.
On the same day, another accusation came from former Speaker of the National Assembly Sardar Ayaz Sadiq in the same house. He claimed that he was present in a meeting last year when Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said that we need to release Indian Air Force pilot Abhinandan Varthaman as soon as possible because Indians may attack Pakistan in few hours.
There was big hue and cry from the government on these claims made by two very senior and responsible lawmakers.
Prime Minister Imran Khan took no time and announced in Lahore that opposition leaders are “thieves and traitors” and that they will go to jail soon.
However, the Opposition doesn’t appears to be scared of these threats. It is using Imran Khan’s old slogans and allegations against Imran Khan himself.
It was actually Imran Khan who introduced the slogan ‘Modi ka jo yar hey gaddaar hai, gaddaar hai’ (whoever is a friend of Modi, is a traitor). He coined this slogan after Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to the residence of the then PM Nawaz Sharif in Lahore in 2015.
Now Imran Khan is the prime minister and the Opposition is using the same slogan against him.
Political turmoil in Pakistan is getting serious day by day because Nawaz Sharif is openly criticising the Army Chief and the ISI head. Despite restrictions on media and unannounced censorship in Pakistan, Imran Khan has failed to stop Nawaz Sharif’s new narrative. His government is declaring 11 opposition parties as traitors but treason charge itself is becoming a joke in Pakistan.
As for the Army, it doesn’t want to interfere in politics but Imran Khan is creating a situation where the Army should support a big crackdown against opposition parties.
It is difficult to arrest leaders of all 11 parties. They belong to all provinces and all school of thoughts. If the government targets only PML(N), then JUI-F Chief Maulana Fazalur Rehman will lead a long march towards Islamabad. If he is arrested, then Bailawal will lead the march.
The Opposition is even prepared to resign from assemblies for blocking Senate election in March 2021.
It is a general perception in opposition circles that if Donald Trump loses the US Presidential Election, then Imran Khan will become weaker.
As such, the next two months are very important for his future.
His long march to Islamabad against Nawaz Sharif failed in 2014. He will now face a long march by 11 parties in December 2020.
Imran Khan of today is facing the tactics of Imran Khan of yesterday and is losing public support very fast.
