England completed a magnificent treble in Test matches this summer as they beat South Africa 2-1, which followed the 3-0 win against New Zealand and a thumping win over India in the rescheduled fifth Test as the Ben Stokes-led side has shown really positive signs of what’s to come in the ‘Bazball’ era.
The England team will be tested when they travel to Pakistan later this year, but it is South Africa, who have suffered the most from this series, especially the last two Tests. South Africa after beginning the series in a splendid manner with an inning victory lost the last two Test matches and that has severely dented their chances of qualifying for the World Test Championship (WTC) final.
South Africa’s points percentage (PCT) has dropped from 75 to 60 with two consecutive losses and now their series against Australia Down Under later this year, could be decisive to their chances of featuring in the Lord’s final next year.
1. Australia
Australia are currently at the top of the table with a PCT of 70 having played three series, the lowest among the nine teams. However, the Pat Cummins-led side are scheduled to play two of those at home and would fancy their chances against West Indies and South Africa. Australia would have to ensure that they don’t drop any of those five Test matches at home before they travel to India for the four-Test series, which could make or break their chances of qualification.
If Australia win all five Tests in the 2022-23 home season, their PCT will skyrocket to 84 (having earned 60 points for five Test matches), which would keep them in good stead for the qualification. The series against South Africa could kill two birds with one stone as not only Australia will earn points but the Proteas will lose them and hence, a tough competitor gone. However, historically South Africa have done well in Australia and Dean Elgar-led outfit would take confidence from that before taking on West Indies at home.
2. South Africa
South Africa have played four series and their PCT currently stands at 60. If they win the two-match series at home against the West Indies, their PCT will rise up to 72, which will be a good result. However, they have an away series of Australia before that, hence they can’t stay dependent upon the home series for the qualification and they can’t drop points against the World No. 1 side.
If South Africa lose 3-0, their PCT will drop to 50 and even if they win both Tests against West Indies, it will only go up to 57. Hence, for South Africa to stay in the hunt they can’t depend on Australia losing to India and have to win at least one Test to keep their PCT in 60s.
3. Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka, albeit being in the third place have the least chance of getting through to the final- amongst the top five teams because of two reasons. Sri Lanka have already played five series and in 10 matches, their PCT stands at 53.33. They have just two matches left in the 2021-23 cycle and even if they win both of them, their PCT will only reach 61. But they will have a challenge on their hands as they face the defending World Test champions New Zealand in their own backyard, where they are two strong to drop a whole series.
4. India
The third team in the reckoning are India. India haven’t helped themselves by losing three overseas Test matches in last six months. Two losses to South Africa and one to England in July meant that India’s PCT dropped to 52.08 in four series.
India have six Test matches left (two against Bangladesh away and four against Australia at home). If India will all six matches, their PCT will rise up only to 68. Hence, they can’t afford to drop even one match as South Africa will be breathing down their neck. Can India reach WTC final? Yes, they can for that they will have to hope that Australia win their three-match series against South Africa 3-0 and then Rohit Sharma-led side will have to beat the current table-toppers 4-0.
5. Pakistan
The fifth and the final team in the reckoning Pakistan, haven’t helped themselves losing the home series to Australia 0-1 and drawing with Sri Lanka 1-1 as their PCT dropped to 51.85, below that of India. Pakistan’s away Test assignments are done and dusted but they will face England and New Zealand at home.
Pakistan have a total of five Tests remaining and if they win all five their PCT will rise up to 69, which will keep them in the hunt for the final. However, it won’t be easy as England in the new era are dangerous side and having spoiled parties of New Zealand, India and South Africa, they will be eager to end the Babar Azam-led side’s chances as well. Every loss will further reduce Pakistan’s chances with South Africa and India in the hunt as well.
