Rajeshwari Ganesan

National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval is scheduled to meet his Russian counterpart Nikolai Patrushev today (Wednesday). Coming amid the Taliban takeover, the present situation in Afghanistan is likely to be a high point in the interaction between the two national security advisors.

India and Russia now find themselves at a point of a global strategy that is both familiar and at the same time new. The context of the meeting between the two security czars is not one of immediate coordination but of long term and near term hedging.

Last month, PM Modi and Russian President Putin had discussed the developments in Afghanistan and emphasised the need to work together. Further to the meeting, the Kremlin also issued a statement saying, “The two leaders agreed to establish a permanent channel for bilateral consultations on Afghan developments.”

Post the Taliban takeover, Russia has become increasingly significant at a diplomatic level in Afghanistan. Even though Moscow has not formally recognised the Taliban (which is still designated as a terrorist group in Russia), leadership has made it clear that the country’s policy will be the one of engagement. The Putin administration has been cultivating contacts with Taliban officials, so much so that Moscow had opened channels with the Taliban as far back as 2015 and has held multiple rounds of inter-Afghan talks in the capital since 2018. 

Now the covert camaraderie has reached a level that last month when the US and the European governments were racing to get their citizens out of Kabul after it fell to the Taliban, Russia was one of the very few countries that were not visibly alarmed by the takeover. And to leave no doubt in anybody’s minds, Putin made his stand amply clear when he said, “The Taliban movement currently controls virtually the entire territory of the country, including its capital. These are realities. We should act based on these very realities, not allowing the Afghan state’s breakup.” 

Reciprocity is the key. The Taliban has invited Russia to attend the ceremony of the new government formation in Afghanistan. Besides Russia, five other countries have also received an invite including China, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar. The common thread between the invitees is that all six are still operating their embassies in Kabul.

However, it is not all warm and cosy between Moscow and Kabul. Russia has also drawn a fine line when it comes to deterring the Taliban’s encroachment and containing their movement to Afghanistan. In recent times, Moscow held several military exercises in Central Asia, including a joint exercise with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on the Afghan border. The message to the Taliban is clear: Moscow will not tolerate if the Taliban overplay their hand and pursue any ambitions beyond the Afghan border.

And when it comes to India and Afghanistan, New Delhi has a stated position of officially engaging only with the elected government in Kabul, even though every other key stakeholder in the Central Asian country continues to maintain direct contact with the Taliban. 

With the Taliban has been sending mixed signals on Kashmir, New Delhi has been wary. Further, the Taliban’s camaraderie with Pakistan has also amplified India’s discomfort.

On one hand, senior Taliban negotiator Anas Haqqani said that the Taliban has a policy of not interfering in the internal matters of other countries, such as Kashmir, and looked forward to “positive” relations with India. However, days later, there was consternation as Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen said in a BBC interview that the Taliban intended to raise its voice for Muslims in Kashmir and India. The statement reeked of Pakistan’s agenda. Moreover, India has enough and more experience of cross-border terrorism through Pakistani-backed terror groups in Taliban-dominated areas. With the Taliban takeover, Islamabad seems to be reinvigorated and with the militant backing from Afghanistan, India really needs to watch its back on Kashmir.

Under such circumstances, and with India’s stated position of non-negotiation with the unelected regime, the only scope remains in engaging in back-channel talks with various Afghan groups as needed. For this, India would strategic allies and partners with the Taliban. With Pakistan and China being out of the question, the only remaining hope is Russia.

When it comes to India, Russia has been a long-time strategic partner. With a close synergy between the countries in the arenas of nuclear, technology, space and science for many decades now, Moscow has also proven itself to be a dependable defence partner by supplying weapons for all three defence forces in India. It is that partnership that New Delhi now needs to tap on in reaching out to various Afghan players through Russia.

Further, like New Delhi, Moscow has also been concerned about the spread of extremism and radicalism beyond Afghan borders. As mentioned earlier, this brings with it the need for military exercises in Central Asia. With the risk of terrorism spreading to their respective countries from the Afghan soil and the ISIS threat, it would greatly benefit Moscow and New Delhi to have a stable Afghanistan.

The meeting between the national security advisors has a lot of eyes set on it. It is now to be seen whether the two countries can have each other’s backs amidst the evolving situation in Central Asia.