Over the last decade, China’s population growth was the lowest it had ever been since the 1950s suggesting that the 1.4-billion strong nation, in the absence of new interventions, was likely to approach its population peak within the next few years. 

The results of China’s once-in-a-decade census showed that Mainland China’s population increased to 1.41 billion over the last ten years, representing a 5.38 per cent growth from its 2010 figure. 

The nation’s seventh population census, conducted at the tail end of last year, also showed that in 2020, Chinese mothers gave birth to 12 million children – an 18 per cent decline from the 14.65 million births recorded in 2019 and an almost six-decade low. China’s fertility rate was also worryingly low at just 1.3 children per woman, close to those of ageing populations like Japan and Italy and significantly lower than the replacement level of 2.1 required for stable population growth.

The slump in population growth has, largely, been the result of a one-child policy implemented in the late 1970s. However, in 2016, China replaced that policy with a two-child limit as concerns grew over its ageing demographic profile. The latest census data though is only likely to further fuel policymaking geared towards providing incentives for families to have more children as concerns loom over whether the country will be able to achieve its economic targets given the current demographic trends. 

Although the census data revealed an unanticipated rise in the proportion of young people (17.95 per cent of the population was aged 14 or younger in 2020) compared to 2010 (16.6 per cent), China’s inability to raise incomes to levels comparable with G7 nations have led some analysts to suggest that having a child is unlikely to figure very highly on the priority list for young women.

China’s population, the bulk of which now live within its sprawling urban metros, are finding costs of living increasingly difficult to swallow. As per a 2005 report by a Chinese think-tank, it cost roughly $74,838 for an ordinary Chinese family to raise a child. However, by 2020, local media reports peg this figure at four times that. 

With urban couples now placing a premium on independence and career growth, the economic impact of inadequate birth rates could be felt sooner rather than later, some analysts contend. Moreover, despite the country making huge gains in poverty alleviation, there exists a widening gap between the rich and poor that further compounds the problem. 

A scenario where large proportions of the population arrive at retirement ages before the younger cohort receive education and training may lead to an increase in unemployment and a significant fall in productivity. 

An ageing population can also spell greater inefficiencies as far as manufacturing is concerned since younger, more able-bodied individuals are likely to be more productive and learn faster than their older counterparts. 

There are also implications as far as China’s military is concerned. A thinning batch of potential recruits into the army could find China’s forces stretched in the coming years, even while the country drives ahead with modernising its military.