Nia-Malika Henderson
When it comes to the affordability debate that will define the midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s biggest and toughest opponent is this: reality.
Consider that in July 2025, when Trump signed his tax cut policy into law with the sweeping One Big Beautiful Bill Act, average national gas prices were $3.16 a gallon. Fast forward to today, and average gas prices are $4.12 a gallon. Researchers at Stanford estimate that the average household will spend an additional $740 this year for gas.
Average tax refunds are up only about $350, or 11%, over last year, according to the Treasury Department. That’s far lower than the original projections of nearly $1,000.
All of that overshadowed a series of events that Trump and Republicans held this week to celebrate their tax cuts as Americans closed out tax-filing season. The GOP has been counting on generous tax refunds to give them a political boost heading into the midterms, but so far, it has not materialized.
The good news for Republicans is this: Trump largely stayed on message during a roundtable event in Las Vegas. It was a notable contrast from his affordability rallies, where his wild oratorical “weave” often drowned out his message.
The bad news is this: In the reality-based world, the economy for workers in Las Vegas – and beyond – isn’t so great. Tariffs and a decline in international visitors have dented tourism in Las Vegas, where the unemployment rate has been among the highest for a large metro area over the past year. And while workers in Sin City earned some of the highest tax refunds in the country, they are also contending with $5 a gallon gas, among the highest in the country.
Still, Trump touted a rosy reality, claiming the economy was “booming” and would do even better, once the “diversion” of the Iran war was settled.
“For the remainder of 2026, you’re going to see a big surge,” Trump said during the 45-minute event at a downtown Las Vegas ballroom. “The numbers are really tremendous, and that’s why I’m out here. If they were bad, I wouldn’t be here today. I’d be sitting home watching television.”
Consumers aren’t as bullish. An April consumer confidence survey by the University of Michigan was the gloomiest in 70 years. The previous low was in June 2022, when gas prices hit $5 a gallon and inflation was at 9.1%, a 40-year high.
Other polls find much the same. An April YouGov poll found that just 16% of those surveyed thought that the economy was improving, with 57% saying the economy was getting worse. Just 13% said that they are financially better off than they were a year ago, and 38% said they were not.
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, who leads the GOP effort to retain control of the chamber, released a video touting tax cuts that amount to $300 a month for some filers. “Thank a Republican!” he says.
But Americans aren’t feeling grateful. According to a Fox News poll, a record 70% of those surveyed think their taxes are too high, with 75% seeing government spending as wasteful. Trump has asked for $1.5 trillion in defense spending, the largest year-over-year hike in decades.
According to a survey from the Bipartisan Policy Center, only 27% of those surveyed felt the Trump tax law favored them, with Republicans and tipped and overtime workers more likely to hold this view. Many Americans used their refund money to pay down debt, increasing their payments by 20% for car and student loans and credit card balances.
And then there’s gas prices. Nearly two-thirds of all voters (65%) and 73% of independents directly blame Trump for increasing prices at the pump, according to a Quinnpiac poll.
Democrats, meanwhile, are highlighting the GOP tax law’s bigger breaks for upper income earners. That’s a smart message, given that some 38% of voters say the biggest annoyance about taxes is that the rich aren’t paying their fair share, according to the Fox poll.
Republicans are set to continue the messaging around taxes and their megabill into the midterms. But messaging can’t overcome the anxiety many Americans feel about an economy that Trump has disrupted with tariffs and a war of choice. And that’s the reality for the Republicans who will be on the ballot.
