ONGC may receive nearly $500 million in unpaid dividends from its Venezuelan oil project as the evolving US-Venezuela situation has revived expectations of long-pending payouts from the South American nation, global brokerage firm Jefferies has said.
Market experts are anticipating that a potential US takeover of Venezuela’s oil industry could eventually lead to the lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan crude exports.
Although US President Donald Trump has said that sanctions remain in place for now, any future relaxation could bring more oil supply into the global market, putting pressure on crude prices.
ONGC could benefit if the situation improves, as the company is due to receive around $500 million in unpaid dividends from the San Cristobal project for the period up to 2014.
However, production at the field halted after 2014, resulting in no dividend accruals in the subsequent years.
ONGC has exposure to Venezuela’s oil sector through its overseas arm, ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL).
The company holds a 40 per cent participating interest in the San Cristobal Project in Venezuela.
In addition, OVL, along with Indian Oil Corporation and Oil India, owns an 11 per cent stake in the Carabobo-1 oil field.
Brokerage firm Jefferies cautioned that while there may be short-term positives, a medium-term risk for ONGC lies in a potential revival of Venezuelan oil output.
Higher production from the country could add to global supply and weigh on crude oil prices, impacting upstream oil companies.
Meanwhile, commodity experts believe the US-Venezuela conflict has added a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices, even though the immediate impact on global supply remains limited.
According to Aamir Makda, Commodity and Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, Venezuela currently produces between 800,000 and 1.1 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for around one per cent of global supply.
“While the immediate effect on global oil supply is limited, the change in control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves poses critical implications for heavy crude pricing and long-term supply forecasts,” he noted.
