Nishtha Gautam

Since many Indians are upset about the latest oil deal between the US and Pakistan, this move has seemingly achieved its goal before the first drill even touches Pakistani soil. As the announcement is made, predictably on US President Donald Trump’s social media handle, on the heels of 25% tariffs announcement for India, it is somewhat natural for New Delhi to feel jilted. Trump seems to have counted on this feeling.

After announcing the India-Pakistan ceasefire in May, and never shutting up about it since then, Trump has been coddling both military and civil establishments in Pakistan. Whether it is the much-discussed hosting of Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir or this latest oil trade deal, the US and Pakistan appear to be inching closer, reminiscent of the War on Terror days. Since the Afghanistan war is officially over for the US, one may wonder why Islamabad has suddenly become relevant for Washington yet again.

Just Do It’

A quick answer could be Trump’s idiosyncratic foreign policy, wherein what Trump thinks in any moment is what Trump does the next, irrespective of how outlandish the thought may be. A serious deliberation, however, may reveal some other factors in no particular order of importance. 

In 2023, Pakistan received USD 1.8 billion in Foreign Direct Investment, as opposed to India’s mammoth USD 44.4 billion. What is more perplexing about these figures is that Pakistan received this sum mostly from China in the form of energy investments. This sum, although not significant, may have irked someone in Washington, prompting a reestablishment of the principal-agent relationship between the US and Pakistan. China’s influence needs to be contained anyhow, especially if it involves an agent state. Even without Afghanistan in the equation, Pakistan remains an important box in the “Eurasian chessboard” – or so it wants everyone in the West to believe.

Pride And Persuasion

Pakistan has successfully lobbied Western capitals into believing in its indispensability in the regional strategic landscape. Portraying their country as a victim of terrorism, Pakistan’s civil and military establishments have managed to elicit benefits from the West by playing on the latter’s security anxieties. The US continues to buy this narrative for various reasons, not discounting the naivete among them. 

India may not be thrilled about the latest deal, but bigger maybe the disappointment of Pakistani dissenters. There are growing voices against this constant duping of the public by the establishment. With each such highfalutin ‘deal’ – like the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – there is an expectation of a socio-economic turnaround in Pakistan. With a beleaguered economy crumbling under massive international debt, Pakistan has very little going for itself at present. What Pakistan lacks in terms of state-building, it more than makes up for in the realm of being obsequious towards its principal states, be it China or the US. 

At Least Someone Is Happy

Going by the public discourse, obtaining an International Monetary Fund loan is a cause for national celebration. Grant announcements from the Arab countries give Pakistan a sense of inflated importance. No hint of irony is lost here. When dissenters question this fiction, they are either killed or jailed. Pakistan’s playing the vassal state to global superpowers doesn’t translate into the country’s development, but it keeps the political and military elite and their coterie well-fed.

At this very moment, Pakistan’s human rights activists are protesting alongside Baloch women in Islamabad against forced disappearances. After a violent crackdown on a similar protest in Karachi earlier this year, the Pakistan government is playing deaf this time. Fissures in Pakistan’s socio-political structure are getting exacerbated by economic duress. It is, therefore, a question of Pakistan’s survival to make outlandish promises, economic and strategic, to whomsoever it may concern. 

Keeping America Interested

Since the CPEC has underperformed, partially due to the armed resistance it has faced in the Baloch areas and mainly because Pakistan doesn’t have a substantial industrial base to take advantage of the corridor, there may be anxieties in Pakistan around exclusive reliance on China. It is important, therefore, to keep the US interested in the utility of Pakistan.

In turn, the US may want to keep its non-NATO ally content with deal announcements, with an eye fixed firmly on China. Locked in an impasse over trade with China, the US has been exploring any and all avenues to check China’s geopolitical influence. While Pakistan may not overtly defy China – especially after having used Chinese defence hardware and intelligence against India – its proclivity for the original principal state will lead to certain concessions for the US. 

Should this rekindling bother India? Definitely. Can India do anything about it? Very little, if at all.