Major real estate players in the sector are expected to maintain growth momentum through new launches. A report by Motilal Oswal projects that new launches will grow at a 12% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the Financial Years (FY) 2025–27. The report noted that several FY25 launches will spill over into FY26 due to delays in regulatory approvals. FY26 is likely to see a more back-loaded yet robust pipeline, driving sustained momentum in the medium term.
According to Motilal Oswal, the companies under its coverage are projected to post a 21% CAGR in presales and a sharp 36% CAGR in collections—reaching Rs 1.5 lakh crore by FY27—driven by timely execution and a strong pipeline.
The revenue across the top firms is expected to grow at a healthy 22% CAGR to ₹86,100 crore, fuelled by strong business development, execution efficiency, and upcoming deliveries. FY25 commenced on a positive note for the sector but saw a slowdown in momentum toward the end of the year, particularly in project launches and home absorption across the top seven cities.
The launches during the fiscal year declined 5% year-on-year (YoY), while absorption fell 10% YoY. Notably, the fourth quarter witnessed subdued activity, with an 11% drop in launches and a 17% decline in absorption.
Factors such as state and central elections, delays in regulatory approvals, the absence of key decision-making committees, and policy changes contributed to the slowdown in new project launches. As launches remained limited, absorption levels also weakened in key markets, the report added.
The report also noted that, for the first time in five years, inventory levels of real estate companies began to rise. Real estate inventory stood at 14.4 months by the end of FY25—unchanged from Q4—marking the first sequential increase in 19 quarters. However, despite the slowdown, overall absorption continued to outpace new supply.
Meanwhile, the report highlighted that consolidation within the sector is gaining momentum. In the top seven cities, the market share of the top 10 developers in terms of launches rose from 22.7% in FY15 to 31.9% in FY25.
Their share of absorption also increased from 19.0% to 23.1% during the same period. This trend is expected to benefit leading players in the coming years, the report added.
